Update 25 Sep 0040: Polo and Odalys are now presently headed towards each other and have been for several hours now. They are beginning to be close enough to influence each other. It does appear that Odalys is stalling its westward momentum and is turning left. They could still influence each other. This creates uncertainty and leaves the entire Sea of Cortez under threat still.

It does appear that the ridge presently steering Polo away from Baja is weakening already.

I will be attempting to determine if there will be an interaction between the storms and what could happen if so. At the moment it does not appear certain that they will get much closer.

As a result, the entire Sea of Cortez is potentially under direct or indirect threat from Polo or the thunderstorms it and Odalys could trigger.

The good news is, the energy to form thunderstorms has abated for now.


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Update: 24 Sep 17:30: Polo has started to head west finally, later than predicted by the NHC, but possibly more to the right than predicted. However; Odalys has strengthened as is looking to head very close to Polo and cause unpredictable changes in the trajectory of Polo, which will be the dominant force in the interaction with Odalys.

Once this interaction occurs we will know more about where the storm will go. Until then, it is all wishfull thinking.



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I am writing a new post once again for clarification and to reduce clutter with regards to the tropical weather associated with hurricanes Polo and Odalys as well as general weather on the Sea of Cortez.

First of all, Polo is tracking to the right of where the NHC says it will go, as usual. They even say they are biasing their guidance to the right from what all of their models but one or two say, models that are consistently more right when it comes to storms that spawn this time of year and head to Baja. But that model is more correct, and it shows, as I wrote below in the previous post, that as of right now, Polo seems likely to make landfall around Cabo, travel up through La Paz, and head across to Topolobampo.

On a personal note, if this is the case, it is decent revenge for what those places have done to me. Cabo is what it is but they participate in what La Paz does and refused to service our boat. La Paz took everything from me, and the guy who killed my friend runs Marina Palmira in Topolobampo. I will CELEBRATE if the hurricane takes that path.

As of now, the energies I talk about in the discussion below are being drained from the lower sea of cortez, meaning that where are and south to where the hurricane directly affects are done with thunderstorms for the year. But, Polo is getting big and if it does go north of La Paz it will slam everyone up and down the Sea of Cortez regardless of whether the hurricane directly affects them or not.

We still don't know enough to say anyone is out of danger yet, but we do know that interests on the peninsula need to brace for the strongest hurricane to ever affect Baja California Sur in history!