Olaf - Shit! 
Friday, September 10, 2021, 09:33 AM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator

Disperser has drug into the bay and we are in heavy weather conditions. My landing ramp for getting on and off the boat was nearly destroyed by waves. I'm on two anchors, both on rhode instead of chain. My third spare anchor is still where I had to cut the chain to leave it because it was fouled, and I just watched Duck Sloop, my 1966 Cal28 go by, likely with no anchor like whatsoever, so a definite complete loss.

Now, we just have to survive. My batteries aren't charging because my wind generators, well, they don't work in hurricanes.

It's going to be a rough few hours as the storm plays out. It's moving west but a strong band from an eyewall change is playing out and things are very rough. I estimate winds at 40 knots with gusts easily to 60.


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Olaf - Firsthand 
Friday, September 10, 2021, 08:38 AM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator
Olaf came.

The NHC should be sued out of existence for their negligence in forecasting, including again using the output of the model instead of the actual location of the storm.

It's odd to me, because twice now, the NHC has botched forecasts in a way specifically harmful to BCS, as if the NHC has taken revenge against me by endangering everyone here. It wouldn't surprise me, given the US State Department got my disability cut off by not transmitting communications between SSA and myself as they are obligated to do.

Anyway, my ship has drug, significantly, and I've lost one of my boats, it drug right off the anchor and is likely either anchored somewhere dozens of miles away, or washed up or sunk somewhere. It is a complete loss, no doubt. I have a sea anchor set up in case I lose both anchors or drag out of reach of my anchor line. At least my engine runs.

The only good news for me is that I moved to the abandoned boatyard I am seizing in the name of the federal government. At least I have a place to put things to dry and to live if this boat doesn't survive and I do.
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"Olaf" Update 
Wednesday, September 8, 2021, 04:22 AM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator
Olaf's center of circulation at the lower level is moving westward more than the NHC's models are showing, due I believe to following the SSTs which show a westward contour at the location of the center.

However; the top of the center of circulation is moving eastward relative to the bottom, showing an increase in sheer.

These conditions are sure to change, as the contour doesn't go far before the system has a chance to go any direction for SSTs. The sheer should also diminish some and allow for strengthening.

I am of the belief this system will affect La Paz, and that it could affect La Paz directly as a Category 3 hurricane.

I will be keeping a close eye on this system. Do not put your faith in the NHC's forecast. I would not put it past them to endanger everyone in La Paz for the sake of trying to do so to me. The US State Department, after all, deliberately failed to submit documents for my disability and got them cut, I didn't even know until they stopped being deposited because the US State Department was supposed to send me any mail as they knew I have no way to receive mail here in Mexico.

I now have direct evidence of harassment of an American citizen seeking refuge in Mexico by the US Government, a clear violation of International Law and my rights. And given I have nearly every year embarrassed them with their wildly inaccurate and useless forecasts, they simply cannot be trusted when it comes down to it.

In case you need a reminder, the present forecast is nearly identical to the predicted path of Nora, which instead of going west of La Paz, was just west of the MAINLAND.
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"Olaf" Update 
Tuesday, September 7, 2021, 03:52 PM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator
I have examined the air mass movements which appear to me would affect what will eventually be called Olaf's movement. SSTs are the primary driving factor for the development of a tropical system and thus a tropical system can only develop if it remains over warm enough waters, so it will tend to follow those waters. Upper level and lower level atmospheric affects will also affect steering.

In the case of Olaf, we again have two choices, westward or northward, two directions the SSTs are warm enough for continued development. The air masses appear to be moving in such a way as to steer Olaf slightly west of north at the moment, which also explains why the sytstem is still elongated along that axis as the system is still connected to the parent tropical wave.

Conditions appear to be conducive for continued and even rapid development of this system. A persistent high remains over southern Baja but that may not be enough to keep tropical cyclones from affecting La Paz directly or indirectly.

I am keeping an eye on the system because I believe it is not more likely than not that it could affect La Paz, and likely within a week.
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Olaf - Initial Forecast 
Monday, September 6, 2021, 08:45 PM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator
What is expected to develop into tropical storm Olaf is presently under initial development directly south of Baja just off the mainland south of Puerta Vallarta. The system is expected to build and form a tropical storm soon, likely within 24 hours. The system could come to La Paz given present conditions, but I do not know yet.

Expect the possibility of up to a Category 3 hurricane could come to La Paz in the next week or two. The longer it takes for the storm to come here, the bigger it will be.

I will be monitoring this storm carefully and updating my forecast accordingly.
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Nora Update 
Tuesday, August 31, 2021, 08:19 AM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator

Despite what the NHC and others may say, Nora persists as remnants. The center of circulation has elongated so much that it presents in satellite, which you can see in the link below. If you change to 20 images you will see the circulation extends from the mainland shoreline4 from Mazatlan to about Guymas but remains extremely narrow.

This is important because Mazatlan and Sonora are bot experiencing tropical weather, monsoon-like thunderstorms but outside monsoon conditions because the tropical system as brought those conditions with it. The circulation, even if only half, causes air to rise as it rotates. This creates low pressure which causes moist humid air to rise in the same way monsoon storms start. These are unusual conditions and should have remained forecast in my opinion.


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Nora Update 
Sunday, August 29, 2021, 09:20 PM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator
Nora continues to hug the coast, the eye now fully on shore and elongated and obviously in the process of disintegrating.

We are currently receiving winds that represent entrainment into the storm, that storm is a low, it draws air from high pressure areas around it. Our barometric pressure is decreasing as a result, falling from a high actually above where it was before the tropical wave even came here some time last night.

I do not expect storms, only continuing wind which will waver between stronger and weaker as the storms play out on the sea.

As for me, I am quite exhausted. I had just finished pulling out nearly all of my hernias when I pulled the biggest back through loading a simple propane bottle. The good news is, I figured out how I did it, precisely how I do it when I pull chain by hand. So I have to be extremely careful doing anything that is anything like pulling chain. Hard to do at anchor.


Enjoy the day. It's quite warm of course, the desert heat is blowing across the peninsula instead of being drawn up into local storms. We won't see monsoons for at least a few days.


Word of warning: The next tropical system will not miss La Paz. If conditions are right for the worst case scenario, it can still occur, with the system tracking up the west side of the Sea of Cortez or the Pacific coast of the peninsula where the SSTs remain high having not been reduced by the storm; or across the peninsula itself of course.

The next storm is called Olaf by the way.



Final word. I am not ignorant of New Orleans. I don't have the energy to concern myself, but my heart goes out to the city which I am certain will never be rebuilt. It is a city my family is connected to in a small way, but a city I have never visited. I have been following the storm because its fate is connected to Nora's. I have watched and saw the storm was going to hit the city several hours ago. It breaks my heart to see it happen. It is a place that will be erased from the map by the time you have read this post. RIP New Orleans.

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Nora Update 
Sunday, August 29, 2021, 09:17 AM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator
Nora is still plying its way along the coast, following the path forecast by the NHC for almost 24 hours so far.

The storm is creating some big storms which present big enough to have me suggest that we could see big storms here in La Paz today. At the very least, we will get clouds and humidity from the storm today.
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Nora IS a Miss, Will Not Directly Affect La Paz 
Sunday, August 29, 2021, 04:21 AM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator
We missed this one. The eye has moved ashore and will be moving even more eastward than the last NHC forecast I looked at, which showed the eye hugging the coast pretty much to San Carlos. It won't even make Mazatlan.

From the perspective of La Paz, there is no threat from Nora. However; Nora's system, the underlying tropical wave, has reduced our pressure sufficient to mean monsoonal thunderstorms (what we have been having, including those fun downdrafts/cloudbursts) will be on the menu, probably large and probably won't miss La Paz.

Enjoy your thunderstorm and be sure to prepare for flash floods.

Nora is going to Mazatlan instead of La Paz.



By the way, I will always stand by my criticism of the NHC. I posted in a prior entry a link and commentary stating that what they wrote was basically "we don't know" in jargon to make themselves look good. I said in my forecasts that I didn't know what was going to happen. That's honesty. I do not have access to the data that the NHC has. I don't have to. I have an understanding, a dynamic model in my mind of how these things work, always improving because I'm always honest with myself and in my forecasts. That kind of self objectivity is vital to learning how to forecast tropical weather, which is of course important to me because my life very much depends on it.

The NHC cannot tell you they don't know what is going to happen. That is because their forecast methodology is to report what they interpret their models as predicting what the storm will do. That is not a wise methodology because the reason we seek forecasts is to know what COULD happen so that we can be prepared. A good forecast tells us if the storm could affect us and what the quality of the data is to tell us, or an interpretation of the quality of the data such as a percentage chance. We need to know what could happen, and what level of confidence there is in the prediction. This guides our decisions in how to prepare for a storm. And that's the whole point of looking at tropical weather forecasts and why I'm sure you who have followed this forecast prefer my forecast to theirs. I tell you what you need to know because I find out what I need to know. I just report what I find and give you as much background data and interpretation as possible.

This is a link to the graphical forecast archive. Play and watch the animation. You will see what "we don't know what is going to happen" looks like, and precisely why I do not like their forecast methodology.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2021/NORA_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_no_line
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Nora - It's a Miss...? 
Sunday, August 29, 2021, 12:52 AM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator
Nora seems to be on course to miss La Paz completely.

I will update this forecast if that changes.

Expect some warm humid weather tomorrow with the likelihood of broad thunderstorms with possible local gale force winds.

Enjoy your weekend. I know I am now.
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Nora Update - Good News? 
Saturday, August 28, 2021, 08:43 PM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator
I have had a good look at the satellite as well as today's weather fax and have a better idea of what's going on now, although it is absolutely a deciding moment for us here in La Paz as to whether or not this storm is going to affect us.

I see the system, which now extends all the way up the peninsula/Sea of Cortez, has begun rotating counterclockwise, with the center moving approximately northeast. This has affected Nora by steering it more east than the NHC has been forecasting, and as I forecast last update, tempered with my concern it could keep rotating and move back towards La Paz. My observations now demonstrate the Nora is actually beginning to interact with IDA's outflows, meaning the directions of the systems are starting to align, which of course means Nora is steering east, and thus away from La Paz.

What is also hopeful (from the perspective of not getting slammed by this storm) is that most of the storm's energies are being expressed in everwhere but the quadrant facing La Paz, meaning that if the storm continues this presentation, it is unlikely to even affect La Paz.

I am of course keeping a close eye and will studying satellite imagery intensely over the next two hours.

I should know by tonight if Nora is going to hit La Paz.
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Nora Update 
Saturday, August 28, 2021, 02:51 PM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator
The NHC forecast linked below is in error and shows the storm traveling past La Paz to the east. This is no longer the case. It appears that Ida is actually steering the system (Nora as well as the underlying tropical wave are still a single system.) Ida is of course moving generally north, which equates to influence in steering Nora also moving north.

It is my opinion that the storm will continue to track east, towards the mainland, but that it will steer towards La Paz, possibly at the last minute, leaving La Paz once again unprepared for a major storm.

Do not be fooled by the NHC forecast. They are only concerned with being right at the expense of people's lives. Their methodology for forecasting is flawed as it does not consider what people need, and that is to know whether or not to prepare for a hurricane. We don't want to know what is going to happen, we need to know what could, and for that, the NHC forecast methodology is completely flawed.

I cannot say for certain what this storm is going to do. But I am here to tell you that it CAN be as bad as a Category 3 or even higher hurricane that could come directly over La Paz. Please prepare accordingly.
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Nora Update 
Saturday, August 28, 2021, 04:49 AM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator
Nora is following the worst case scenario path. I never thought I would witness it in person but did expect it could happen some day. And here is that day, so far.

While I still vehemently disagree with their forecast methodology (the five day cone should include ANYWHERE any of the models suggest its possible the storm can go or otherwise demonstrate where, especially on land, people need to be aware there is a potential for a tropical storm to affect them. Nora will affect La Paz, how much is dependent upon how much energy can be absorbed by the hot waters in the Sea of Cortez versus what is lost to upper level sheer, which has been notably high but is predicted to diminish.

I am preparing for the worst, a hurricane that stays in the Sea of Cortez and lingers releasing all the pent up energy of the area in one go. This storm is going to be fierce though the winds will not be as high as if the storm came directly over La Paz, though tornadoes are not out of the question.

I am quite scared. I cannot keep up with regular forecasts because I am too anxious and too stressed to concentrate well enough to do much beyond deal with this thing as it develops.

I don't much feel like providing a service to La Paz for how I have been treated.

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Nora  
Friday, August 27, 2021, 06:20 AM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator
Nora is coming. It will be big. I will probably die, if not during, in the short term afterwards.

My health is failing. My ship is badly damaged and cannot survive a hurricane much less another month in the water. Even if I survive, any damage to my ship or belongings will be insurmountable for me, as no damage at all will be because my SSDI payments stopped because the Federal Benefits Unit here in Mexico deliberately sabotaged my benefits. I have evidence for all of my claims. I do not publish anything I do not know to be true. I have been my own lawyer for more than 10 years.

I need to not be invisible. These people are getting away with what they are doing because they censor and hide behind concepts such as antisemitism (I hadn't even entertained the concept until I got here, now I most definitely understand the conspiracy theories, just look up Malcolm Neil Shroyer Schoen and note his influence.

I will not be killed by these people.

Good luck to all of you, unless you're one of the assholes that is.


PS: If you don't like my forecasts, go ahead and continue to rely on the NHC. Yes, they were, so far, more correct in their forecast than I was this time, THIS TIME. How about next time?


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Nora update 
Friday, August 27, 2021, 02:19 AM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator
Read the link below to find out how the NHC says "we don't know what the fuck is going on."

It's an interesting read.


Nora is anyone's guess at this point. It is a double system alternating between having two centers around each other and concentric to each other. Because of this, the immediate steering direction of the storm cannot possibly be predicted. What I read from looking at the latest SSTs, assuming they are accurate, is that Nora is following the 28deg contour westward and would have to jump across cooler water to get back to 28 in order to head north to the peninsula.

At this point, I do not see Nora coming to La Paz, but I am not at all saying it cannot.

My forecast update then is to prepare for the possibility of a strong hurricane coming to La Paz as soon as Monday night.

My feeling, my personal prediction based on my instincts, is that the storm will head west of the peninsula, not even threatening the mainland south of Guadalajara.
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