As usual NHC has it wrong.

Milton is in a patch of 30deg water and will remain there until it strengthens and effectively uses up that warmer water, surviving any sheering presently happening.

The system will likely then proceed as indicated in their forecasts. However; it will be later arriving than predicted and if sheering diminishes will strike as a major hurricane somewhere between the middle of Florida and between Florida and Cuba. So if you are in southern Florida you need to prepare now for a potential category 5 hurricane and associated storm surge.

This is going to be bigger than Helene folks. And if you were south of Helene and missed being affected Milton will take care of that...

Good luck folks.

Speed limit in the bay, in the anchorage, where people live, kayak, amd swim, is 5 knots, or 5 mph. No wake. No full throttle.

Yet I was thrown in jail, illegally, as sanctioned by the US Consulate, for saying something to the ones who speed by my vessel intentionally and too close.

Well:

http://disperser.info/Pangueros/

My experience so far with seizing this property has been an eye opener. I have been shown the true nature of these people. The powerful hire government employees to do their bidding. No one is held to account, and no one actually does their job.

The property I have taken represents foreign and especially so-called "zionist" influences. Whatever you think about Jews, these people here who have all the power and money are Jewish and treat anyone outside their tribe as no more than an opportunity to improve their own station through exploitation. I was unaware of this phenomenon, of Jews treating their own well and others with malice, until I tried to run for Commodore of Club Cruceros and was told I couldn't because I am not a Jew. The elections were cancelled and none have been held since.

La Paz was built, as a tourism destination, by one man, Mac Shroyer. This man set up a grossly corrupt system whereby the people in charge are the worst offenders. The worst, most evil, most selfish, most dispicable people are the ones in charge. Everything here favors the corrupt and there is absolutely no accountability. As an example, 4 years ago, I complained to the Navy that Cantamar, a dive tour business, was making fake flotation devices. They told me to mind my own business. And here, four years later, Cantamar has nothing but fake flotation devices on their boats.

La Paz is a disaster waiting to happen. There are absolutely no safety regulations enforced, no safety mechanisms in place, and no emergency services adequately equipped to handle the kind of disaster this place has brewing under all this corruption. With no one monitoring and regulating anything related to safety, every day is a miracle that this pending disaster doesn't happen. One day it will, and it could be your loved one killed or hurt.

This place is a dump, a dive, a trap, and it's all because a Jew turned his dream of sailing into a golden opportunity to exploit yet another peoples.

I have grown to hate the Jewish culture for what it is, a racist people who believe themselves better than everyone else, that we are all their slaves, and that they can do what they want without regard to any of the laws we put in place. And worst of all, they have their own damn country, the only peoples on this planet to have their own country, and they aren't happy with it and have to stick their noses into everyone else's business and run their countries too.

Not anymore, not in my life, not here in La Paz.

I am standing my ground. And I ask you to stand with me, if you have any interest in a future of your own rather than as a slave to Jews and their evil ways.

By the way, Jews are a people, not individuals. I never hate an individual I don't know. Every Jew has the potential to be empathetic and thus actually human. And not everyone who is without empathy and a selfish evil asshole is Jewish. The fact is, the Jewish culture promotes a disease in humans which makes people inhuman, and that is the precise nature of the Jewish culture, it promotes lack of empathy and without empathy, you cannot be human. How else can you explain such inhuman behavior?

I am extremely exhausted from my continuing ordeal. I took possession of the property before Olaf came. The day after I return from dragging several miles I went to town and upon my return saw people on the property and military outside.

The supposed new owner, the owner of Marina Palmira, had his thugs beat up my security guard, a homeless man I knew for some time, destroy my Suburban, cut my mooring lines and attack my ship.

This he did instead of civillay asking me what I am doing on property he claims to own.

I will be updating it to reflect the new "owner" but for now here is a statement from me about this property.

Statement Regarding Seizure of Federal Land
My name is Michael Wolf. I am an American citizen. I sailed myself to Mexico in 2014 seeking
temporary refuge to allow me to complete work on my vessel so I could safely complete my journey to
a safe country outside of the United States of America. I am disabled, a genius who suffered brain
damage, who is taken advantage of and mistreated because of my injuries. I also suffer from serious
health problems which I am only able to manage because my ship is setup as a hospice and I have the
assistance of a live-in caregiver. I also seek political asylum in Mexico on account of harassment by
the US State Department who illegally caused my disability benefits to be cancelled, intentionally.
I have taken possession of this property in the name of the federal government of Mexico because the
titled owner, whose claim to this property is not legal, caused me great harm through his crimes against
me including extortion, blackmail, and threats of violence against me, all of which are documented. I
have also endured great harm as a result of vicious lies spread about me by this man, Karsten Honack,
through his friendship with Malcolm and Daniel Shroyer such that my ship was heavily damaged as a
result of crimes committed against me on account of these rumors. My ship is in dire condition and
requires immediate haulout to prevent sinking. Local boatyards refuse to service me due to rumors.
This property legally belongs to the Federal Government of Mexico per the law documented in the
Federal Registry on the 21st of September, 1998 which stipulated that these properties must be used
commercially, whereas clearly Wolfgang Honack resided on the property as a private residence. The
property has been abandoned since 2012 when Wolfgang died.
As the federal government has also harmed me by ignoring my request for refuge and asylum, I will
maintain possession and if possible will take title to this property as compensation for all of the
damages I have incurred as a result of the fact that the government’s failure to address my refuge case
served to legitimize vicious rumors spread about me by people known to the Mexican government to be
foreign agents acting against the Mexican people.
Legal and other documents related to this property can be found on my website via the following links:
http://disperser.info/documents/21Sep98Solo.pdf – Law regarding disposition of property which was
reclaimed from the sea
http://disperser.info/documents/APIContract.pdf – the only documentation ceding the property
http://disperser.info/documents/AllKastorEmails.pdf – evidence of threats and extortion by Karsten
Honack/Kastor Industrial
http://disperser.info/documents/GunsOnProperty.jpg – photograph of men who threatened me shooting
guns into the sea towards tourists taken minutes before they threatened me
http://disperser.info/documents/ITAIEmails.pdf – emails with ITAI seeking documentation
http://disperser.info/documents/Patrimo ... Emails.pdf - emails exchanged with state
government, titled owner at the time
http://disperser.info/documents/ProposalPichilingue.pdf – my original proposal as requested by the
state when I sought use from them after discovering they were titled owner
http://disperser.info/documents/Proposa ... mpedCL.pdf – my modified proposal after I
found out the property was not legally documented/owned
http://disperser.info/documents/Registr ... piedad.pdf - Title for the property as of 2017
http://disperser.info/documents/SaleRentalFlyer.pdf – flyer from Karsten Honack attempting to sell the
property without title in 2017

Disperser has drug into the bay and we are in heavy weather conditions. My landing ramp for getting on and off the boat was nearly destroyed by waves. I'm on two anchors, both on rhode instead of chain. My third spare anchor is still where I had to cut the chain to leave it because it was fouled, and I just watched Duck Sloop, my 1966 Cal28 go by, likely with no anchor like whatsoever, so a definite complete loss.

Now, we just have to survive. My batteries aren't charging because my wind generators, well, they don't work in hurricanes.

It's going to be a rough few hours as the storm plays out. It's moving west but a strong band from an eyewall change is playing out and things are very rough. I estimate winds at 40 knots with gusts easily to 60.

Olaf came.

The NHC should be sued out of existence for their negligence in forecasting, including again using the output of the model instead of the actual location of the storm.

It's odd to me, because twice now, the NHC has botched forecasts in a way specifically harmful to BCS, as if the NHC has taken revenge against me by endangering everyone here. It wouldn't surprise me, given the US State Department got my disability cut off by not transmitting communications between SSA and myself as they are obligated to do.

Anyway, my ship has drug, significantly, and I've lost one of my boats, it drug right off the anchor and is likely either anchored somewhere dozens of miles away, or washed up or sunk somewhere. It is a complete loss, no doubt. I have a sea anchor set up in case I lose both anchors or drag out of reach of my anchor line. At least my engine runs.

The only good news for me is that I moved to the abandoned boatyard I am seizing in the name of the federal government. At least I have a place to put things to dry and to live if this boat doesn't survive and I do.

Olaf's center of circulation at the lower level is moving westward more than the NHC's models are showing, due I believe to following the SSTs which show a westward contour at the location of the center.

However; the top of the center of circulation is moving eastward relative to the bottom, showing an increase in sheer.

These conditions are sure to change, as the contour doesn't go far before the system has a chance to go any direction for SSTs. The sheer should also diminish some and allow for strengthening.

I am of the belief this system will affect La Paz, and that it could affect La Paz directly as a Category 3 hurricane.

I will be keeping a close eye on this system. Do not put your faith in the NHC's forecast. I would not put it past them to endanger everyone in La Paz for the sake of trying to do so to me. The US State Department, after all, deliberately failed to submit documents for my disability and got them cut, I didn't even know until they stopped being deposited because the US State Department was supposed to send me any mail as they knew I have no way to receive mail here in Mexico.

I now have direct evidence of harassment of an American citizen seeking refuge in Mexico by the US Government, a clear violation of International Law and my rights. And given I have nearly every year embarrassed them with their wildly inaccurate and useless forecasts, they simply cannot be trusted when it comes down to it.

In case you need a reminder, the present forecast is nearly identical to the predicted path of Nora, which instead of going west of La Paz, was just west of the MAINLAND.

I have examined the air mass movements which appear to me would affect what will eventually be called Olaf's movement. SSTs are the primary driving factor for the development of a tropical system and thus a tropical system can only develop if it remains over warm enough waters, so it will tend to follow those waters. Upper level and lower level atmospheric affects will also affect steering.

In the case of Olaf, we again have two choices, westward or northward, two directions the SSTs are warm enough for continued development. The air masses appear to be moving in such a way as to steer Olaf slightly west of north at the moment, which also explains why the sytstem is still elongated along that axis as the system is still connected to the parent tropical wave.

Conditions appear to be conducive for continued and even rapid development of this system. A persistent high remains over southern Baja but that may not be enough to keep tropical cyclones from affecting La Paz directly or indirectly.

I am keeping an eye on the system because I believe it is not more likely than not that it could affect La Paz, and likely within a week.

What is expected to develop into tropical storm Olaf is presently under initial development directly south of Baja just off the mainland south of Puerta Vallarta. The system is expected to build and form a tropical storm soon, likely within 24 hours. The system could come to La Paz given present conditions, but I do not know yet.

Expect the possibility of up to a Category 3 hurricane could come to La Paz in the next week or two. The longer it takes for the storm to come here, the bigger it will be.

I will be monitoring this storm carefully and updating my forecast accordingly.

Despite what the NHC and others may say, Nora persists as remnants. The center of circulation has elongated so much that it presents in satellite, which you can see in the link below. If you change to 20 images you will see the circulation extends from the mainland shoreline4 from Mazatlan to about Guymas but remains extremely narrow.

This is important because Mazatlan and Sonora are bot experiencing tropical weather, monsoon-like thunderstorms but outside monsoon conditions because the tropical system as brought those conditions with it. The circulation, even if only half, causes air to rise as it rotates. This creates low pressure which causes moist humid air to rise in the same way monsoon storms start. These are unusual conditions and should have remained forecast in my opinion.

Nora continues to hug the coast, the eye now fully on shore and elongated and obviously in the process of disintegrating.

We are currently receiving winds that represent entrainment into the storm, that storm is a low, it draws air from high pressure areas around it. Our barometric pressure is decreasing as a result, falling from a high actually above where it was before the tropical wave even came here some time last night.

I do not expect storms, only continuing wind which will waver between stronger and weaker as the storms play out on the sea.

As for me, I am quite exhausted. I had just finished pulling out nearly all of my hernias when I pulled the biggest back through loading a simple propane bottle. The good news is, I figured out how I did it, precisely how I do it when I pull chain by hand. So I have to be extremely careful doing anything that is anything like pulling chain. Hard to do at anchor.


Enjoy the day. It's quite warm of course, the desert heat is blowing across the peninsula instead of being drawn up into local storms. We won't see monsoons for at least a few days.


Word of warning: The next tropical system will not miss La Paz. If conditions are right for the worst case scenario, it can still occur, with the system tracking up the west side of the Sea of Cortez or the Pacific coast of the peninsula where the SSTs remain high having not been reduced by the storm; or across the peninsula itself of course.

The next storm is called Olaf by the way.



Final word. I am not ignorant of New Orleans. I don't have the energy to concern myself, but my heart goes out to the city which I am certain will never be rebuilt. It is a city my family is connected to in a small way, but a city I have never visited. I have been following the storm because its fate is connected to Nora's. I have watched and saw the storm was going to hit the city several hours ago. It breaks my heart to see it happen. It is a place that will be erased from the map by the time you have read this post. RIP New Orleans.

Nora is still plying its way along the coast, following the path forecast by the NHC for almost 24 hours so far.

The storm is creating some big storms which present big enough to have me suggest that we could see big storms here in La Paz today. At the very least, we will get clouds and humidity from the storm today.

We missed this one. The eye has moved ashore and will be moving even more eastward than the last NHC forecast I looked at, which showed the eye hugging the coast pretty much to San Carlos. It won't even make Mazatlan.

From the perspective of La Paz, there is no threat from Nora. However; Nora's system, the underlying tropical wave, has reduced our pressure sufficient to mean monsoonal thunderstorms (what we have been having, including those fun downdrafts/cloudbursts) will be on the menu, probably large and probably won't miss La Paz.

Enjoy your thunderstorm and be sure to prepare for flash floods.

Nora is going to Mazatlan instead of La Paz.



By the way, I will always stand by my criticism of the NHC. I posted in a prior entry a link and commentary stating that what they wrote was basically "we don't know" in jargon to make themselves look good. I said in my forecasts that I didn't know what was going to happen. That's honesty. I do not have access to the data that the NHC has. I don't have to. I have an understanding, a dynamic model in my mind of how these things work, always improving because I'm always honest with myself and in my forecasts. That kind of self objectivity is vital to learning how to forecast tropical weather, which is of course important to me because my life very much depends on it.

The NHC cannot tell you they don't know what is going to happen. That is because their forecast methodology is to report what they interpret their models as predicting what the storm will do. That is not a wise methodology because the reason we seek forecasts is to know what COULD happen so that we can be prepared. A good forecast tells us if the storm could affect us and what the quality of the data is to tell us, or an interpretation of the quality of the data such as a percentage chance. We need to know what could happen, and what level of confidence there is in the prediction. This guides our decisions in how to prepare for a storm. And that's the whole point of looking at tropical weather forecasts and why I'm sure you who have followed this forecast prefer my forecast to theirs. I tell you what you need to know because I find out what I need to know. I just report what I find and give you as much background data and interpretation as possible.

This is a link to the graphical forecast archive. Play and watch the animation. You will see what "we don't know what is going to happen" looks like, and precisely why I do not like their forecast methodology.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2021/NORA_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_no_line

Nora seems to be on course to miss La Paz completely.

I will update this forecast if that changes.

Expect some warm humid weather tomorrow with the likelihood of broad thunderstorms with possible local gale force winds.

Enjoy your weekend. I know I am now.

I have had a good look at the satellite as well as today's weather fax and have a better idea of what's going on now, although it is absolutely a deciding moment for us here in La Paz as to whether or not this storm is going to affect us.

I see the system, which now extends all the way up the peninsula/Sea of Cortez, has begun rotating counterclockwise, with the center moving approximately northeast. This has affected Nora by steering it more east than the NHC has been forecasting, and as I forecast last update, tempered with my concern it could keep rotating and move back towards La Paz. My observations now demonstrate the Nora is actually beginning to interact with IDA's outflows, meaning the directions of the systems are starting to align, which of course means Nora is steering east, and thus away from La Paz.

What is also hopeful (from the perspective of not getting slammed by this storm) is that most of the storm's energies are being expressed in everwhere but the quadrant facing La Paz, meaning that if the storm continues this presentation, it is unlikely to even affect La Paz.

I am of course keeping a close eye and will studying satellite imagery intensely over the next two hours.

I should know by tonight if Nora is going to hit La Paz.