Update 11:26: Odalys is continuing its trajectory but faces the same ridge steering Polo northward. Polo continues to maintain strength and is also continuing to move to the right of the official NHC forecast. The worst thing that can happen is for that ridge steering Polo to collapse or weaken at a time that could send Polo up the peninsula or the Sea of Cortez. At this time, it seems more likely that the storm will steer to the right of the official forecast and cross north of La Paz. But if conditions continue as they are, it is entirely possible the hurricane could go up the peninsula as a major hurricane starting in Cabo and going up to Loreto and then across to Huatabampop. Worse would be if it came up the Sea of Cortez and maintained a path up the sea, even though it is more likely the storm would head into mainland Mexico by way of Topolobampo.

Keep an eye on the forecasts and remember, thunderstorms are still a threat. We are on the edge of the influence of Polo and it is sucking air from our area into it along with moisture and energy that would otherwise manifest as thunderstorms. So we are doing well here.



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Update 08:10PDT: I am having trouble getting satellite imagery but finally did and see that it does appear that Polo is going to the right of the NHC forecast for the moment. I suspect that Polo itself is feeding back into the high pressure ridge, relieving it and diminishing its infuence on Polo. Meanwhile, hotter water to the right is spawning leading edge storms which could provide further steering to the right.

My money is on this storm crossing the peninsula just north of La Paz, if things continue as they are. However; things are dynamic and I have a bad case of wishful thinking to go along with my trauma from having lost my ship to the government of La Paz during Norma. But, uncertainly abounds here and as of this moment, NO ONE on the Sea of Cortez should assume this storm will not gravely affect them!


Update 23 Sep 06:20PDT: Polo is maintaining its strength and low pressure despite slight interference from land. The system that came down through the Gulf of Mexico (FUT) is pushing Polo north but I do not see it as being as strong as the NHC predicts. It is already going to the right of their forecast track. It does appear to be turning slightly left now and I will keep an eye on this of course.

Odalys has slowed and turned slightly left and is still being sheered across the south of BCS. The tropical wave/margin of the high pressure system steering Polo trigger storms last night that spawned on the sea from south of Bahia Los Angeles to south of the bottom of Bahia Conception. These were highly energetic storms as evidenced by the constant lightning. There will be more of these in the coming days as Polo and Odalys continue to affect the Sea of Cortez.

My concern here, other than the NHC being right and the hurricane coming too close to me here, is that Polo could stay close to the mainland and travel up the Sea of Cortez, a worst case nightmare scenario where the baja coast gets 140mph winds while the mainland coast gets 180 and the eyewall bounces, worst case scenario it could hit Cabo, La Paz, Topolobampo, then Loreto or Mulege the back to Guaymas then over to Bahia Los Angeles. The point being everyone is under potential threat right now. Do not relax. Be anxious. Do not assume you are safe. Start preparing now.



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Update 23 September 23:48PDT: Polo has started to move northeast and Odalys is barreling towards the bottom of the Sea of Cortez. I suspect that Odalys will affect the peninsula north of La Paz more than Polo will, but it is still too early to tell. Polo is going slightly right of the NHC forecast so far, but again, it is too early to tell.

Polo and Odalys are both strenghtening, with Polo again reaching 923mb and showing signs of strengthening further.

We just experienced a storm, or rather the edge of one, triggered by the moving tropical wave finally coming over us here in Santa Rosalia. It happened quite suddenly and was offshore and quite intense but like all of these margin storms, quite small. I looked for waterspouts as they do seem to be frequently associated with these small footprint powerful thunderstorms. We also saw that Bahia Los Angeles got storms as well.

Expect more thunderstorms as Polo and Odalys approach. Odalys will likely not hit the peninsula directly but it will dump a lot of moisture and that means storms at tropical wave and other air mass margins as well as spawning in the Baja mountains. The Sea of Cortez is sitting at 30-32degC, so there is a LOT of energy left to clear out before the storms go away for the season.


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Making a new post to reduce clutter and just because.

I have been analyzing the factors which will determine what happens to Polo and Odalys and have come up with a likely scenario that should help better understand what is and will be happening (at least it will help me explain it to you.) Polo is going to be steered by a high pressure ridge developing centered in the Gulf of Mexico (FUT) that will push it west while moving it north. This ridge will be up against the air mass presently steering Odalys towards the peninsula. If the timing is as I estimate from obserations of satellite imagery, Polo could go anywhere between the mainland at Guadalajara to out to sea as the NHC is predicting (and to the left of where it will almost certainly go, as usual - see entire prediction history).

Wherever Polo does go, thunderstorms will be triggered in high elevations by the sheer steering Odalys and which will push Polo westward. So, if the NHC is correct and Baja misses the hurricane, Baja will NOT miss the continuous stream of thunderstorms triggered by the hurricane's energy pumping out of the Pacific and up and over the mountains where it condenses again and falls as rain. If Polo goes up the Peninsula, it could follow a similar path to Jimena or Odile.

My money is on Polo crossing the peninsula at La Paz and not just because La Paz deserves to be wiped off the map for the lives those evil people have destroyed (go to Cd. Constitucion and try talking to the people about real estate and rent prices in La Paz and gentrification.) The ridge coming into Mexico is not that strong, and it is being fed back into by Polo itself, which creates factors that affect its development computer models and even AI (until it reads this) can consider. So I believe the ridge will be weaker than predicted and that Polo will either be a direct threat to Mazatlan, Cabo, or La Paz.

Bear in mind that if this storm does cross the peninsula and heads straight to La Paz, that it is likely to do so as a Category 3, which is what Odile was, however Odile came from a different direction and blew north where Polo is likely to blow across in a manner which puts the stronger winds across La Paz in an easterly direction which would push absolutely everything onto shore but at least leave a smaller fetch for the bay itself.

For everyone else out there, be ready for the worst. DO NOT ASSUME YOU ARE SAFE FROM THIS STORM IF YOU ARE ANYWHERE ON THE SEA OF CORTEZ!