Update: 14 October 7:25PDT: Simon appears to be starting to interact with Trudy. While Simon is stronger, Trudy is bigger and thus is steering Simon. It is my guess that Simon will be absorbed by Trudy and Trudy will threaten Sea of Cortez and Baja interests, but the important aspect of this forecast is that it is presently IMPOSSIBLE to forecast Simon and difficult to forecast Trudy.

DO NOT TRUST ANY FORECAST that tells you where the storm will go. It is absolutely impossible to know with any certainty, as you can probably see by the NHC forecasts (if not, go there and look at the graphical archive). Anyone who says they know where this storm is going is someone whom you should not trust forecasts from.

The factors affecting the movement of Simon are highly complex and constantly changing and feeding back into themselves and each other. The added effects of Trudy make a highly complex situation absolutely impossible to understand. Therefore, it is not presently possible to know where Simon will go. We can only guess and prepare for the worst which is what forecasts should tell us.

It would appear that the worst case scenario is the absorption of Simon into Trudy and Trudy heading towards the Sea of Cortez or Baja peninsula. All interests in the Sea of Cortez should prepare for the worst and maintain a close watch on these two storms. I will do my best to keep this blog up to date.



Update 20:00PDT: Simon appears to have moved into the air mass that is now pushing Simon out to sea. Whether this remains the case is up in the air so to speak. This is a very difficult situation for forecasting where the storm will go. Do not assume the storm will not come your way.



Update 13 October 13:00PDT: Simon is stalled in the entrance to the Sea of Cortez and its literally anyone's guess as to where it will go. A combination of the air mass coming from the north pacific that was supposed to steer Simon north has diminished sooner than expected due to the hole left by Rachel. Simon is feeding back into its own tropical wave which now includes the seeds of Trudy, which is starting to head northwest.

Simon may move up the Sea of Cortez, but in conditions not suitable for strenghtening - too much sheer and too much cool surface air with not enough moisture. It is also entirely possible for Simon to head out to sea as it is to head up the sea. This is an unusual situation and relying on the NHC is obviously not an option this time around.

What you should be doing is preparing for this storm to affect you if you are on the Sea of Cortez. We are in Santa Rosalia and will be preparing for up to Category 1 conditions though I anticipate we won't be affected.

Monitor this blog. I will keep an eye on the storm and advise where possible. But remember, this is an unusual situation which could change and the storm could hit land anywhere in the Sea of Cortez within 24 hours!


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Trudy doesn't yet exist but is likely to form and could enter the Sea of Cortez or affect Baja. I will monitor and report if so.

Simon is going left of forecast due to weakening of the air mass steering it. This also means the sheering is weakening and thus Simon will remain stronger than forecast by the NHC.

The air mass steering Simon north is weaker than forecast but still strong enough to keep Simon away from Baja, so far. However, it is going to the left of forecast and will likely head as far north so as to make landfall close to Topolobampo. Interests between Mazatlan and Guaymas should continue to monitor this storm.

These air masses are caused by interaction between tropical waves and the jetstreams. Tropical waves are larger this year, extending further north, and the jetstreams are fractured and have been moving and varying in intensity. This combination of factors affects the energy transfers which drive these air masses which steer these storms. Meteorologists (why are they called meteorologists if they don't study meteors?) are using past events to predict future events without sufficiently factoring for changing of the patterns of those events, and without consideration for the energy transfers which actually drive the weather. Simply considering the energy would allow for far more accuracy given how important it is, while reducing reliance on historic patterns and including room for changes in those patterns would not add quite as much it would also be significant in making forecasts far more accurate. But sadly, the NHC has a competence problem as well, which suggests that your best course of action is to learn how to predict weather yourself.

Simon retains the potential to cause devestation along the southern Sea of Cortez, including secondary damage caused by swell and winds and triggered thunderstorms in Baja California Sur and Sinaloa which of course will eventually receive Simon.

If Trudy forms, which seems likely, it is likely to head on a track south of Simon's then reverse course and likely towards the mainland south of Alcapulco if it remains organized that long. Waters have cooled significantly in the area and are becoming a major steering factor. Interests in Baja should also monitor this storm as it develops.