13 Sep 14:36PDT: 15e has been declared. What I presume to be 16e has also formed, at least preliminarily. It is well south of Mexico and will likely head out to sea, but it must be watched closely.

The nursery that normally spawns storms that head to the peninsular appears to be experiencing too much sheer for storms to develop, and the tropical waves aren't lining up to promote development there just yet. But this new storm that is developing, and that NHC is not yet watching, needs to be watched.

I will update this post or create a new one if the storm develops further or threatens Baja.



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13 Sep 0828PDT: I have included an image here: [img]https://disperser.info/blog/images/goes-18_2026256_0900.gif[/img] (hopefully) for reference. Please open in another tab/window and study briefly. Note the tropical waves appear as if they were a profile of a breaking wave. Note that the wave following the wave which spawned Norbert is "breaking" on the back of the Norbert wave. Note also the fact that there are no storms in most of the storm spawned by the second wave, which is rotating quite rapidly, likely near tropical storm speeds. Note also the sheer which is causing this.

What I am looking at in this image is the fact that the second storm is rotating without spawning storms in an area of very high sea surface temperatures. The sheer is high but I think the fact the waves are so close together is more of a factor in the storm not developing. We will see. If this continues, we are likely to get a miss for major storms on the peninsula and maybe even the mainland, although I suspect the waves will space out later in the season as the tropical energy diminishes faster than it is replenished.

This is all about energy. And when there is too much of it, paradigms can change. We are seeing a definite paradigm shift, from tropical storms releasing tropical energy to monsoonal storms. These storms are particularly dangerous as if observations I am unable to confirm are true, then the nature of these storms means they are very likely to form water spouts and even tornadoes.

Here is the scenario as most of you are taught to see it:

Which would you rather have happen: be in a category 4 hurricane, or be in an area susceptible to small but intense thunderstorms?

Here is that same scenario as you should see it: Would you rather be able to have advance warning of tropical storms, the nature of which is constant winds from predictable directions that are gradual in their increasing intensity unless you happen to be in the eye; or would you rather deal with surprise, unpredictable small but intense storms, each potentially capable of spawning waterspouts, and each producing strong, violent winds with almost no warning and no time to prepare?

They are the same scenario. The first sounds like you'd obviously rather deal with small storms. But if you think about it, you would have plenty of warning for a large hurricane, and could prepare or even move your vessel or leave the area otherwise. And unless you got the eye, you will always know what the winds will do and can better prepare for a hurricane. Small intense storms are violent and completely unpredictable. Sheltering is difficult. Preparation is impossible except if you are always ready which isn't always convenient (we lost our shade cloth to a downdraft from a storm miles away from us.)

My point here is that while it may seem like good news that the chances of a major tropical storm hitting the peninsula are diminished, it is actually bad news. The tropical energy, which we see largely as sea surface temperatures, has to be relieved. If conditions are not suitable for development of organized tropical storms, that energy is released in a disorganized, random, and therefore more locally violent manner.

And those of you who have been on the Sea of Cortez this past summer are well aware of the fact that air temperature and humidity has played a far more significant role this year that sea surface temperatures alone. There is a saturation point, an area where temperature, humidity, and air pressure combine to create conditions suitable for storm formation, as long as conditions are suitable for updrafts to spawn them, which is actually light to still air. When these conditions are close to being met, the slightest change in any one triggers a cascade where the updraft slams the air pressure down so low that it sucks more air into it creating a local pump, which you see as a slow motion explosion. And that point has been repeatedly reached in odd lines on the sea which are apparently the boundaries of air masses created by the seasonal winds crossing the mainland and peninsula.

Water spouts have been seen in these storms apparently. I have seen how intense they get firsthand, and we have seen and felt the effects from 20 or more miles away.

Do not take anything with regards to your safety for granted when it comes to weather. Be aware that forecasting paradigms to my knowledge all avoid the energy in the forecasting equations. Indeed it is the most vital to those of us who live under threat of weather created by those energies.