Enrique is heading north along the 26 degree contour line. It has a narrow band of sufficient sea surface temperatures to draw from and isn't going to last long whatever happens. It is already interacting both with the cold waters to the west and land to the east. The band does widen and gives some leeway for at least maintaining the system, but its more likely than not that it will burn out before it can give La Paz any significant effects.

I expect, at most, 45knots of wind and about 36 hours of intermittent thunderstorms of varying intensity, and that's if the system goes along the center of the Sea of Cortez and comes over La Paz, the worst case scenario for this system. What is most likely is that the system will burn out within 12 hours so much that it cannot rebuild sufficiently to throw anything at La Paz except some wind and maybe some local thunderstorms of only moderate severity.

Don't be surprised to see the system either veer west or east and quickly fade if the system to the north can uncouple it from the tropical wave.

Enjoy Monday, get ready for some rain and wind, but don't be surprised if we stay dry.


Oh, and there's a link below to the NHC forecast, which I haven't read yet.