Enrique has slotted itself into the northward flow I was concerned about. There is still some question as to which direction it will go and the range couldn't be higher. There's really no way of knowing exactly what is going to happen, but my thought is that the storm is going to go ahead and start tracking up the Sea of Cortez. It will be interacting with land as it does, which will diminish its strength, and it will be over only 26-27 degree water, so not enough to continue to build, especially in light of upper level winds which will tend to sheer the top of the system westward.

If the storm tracks up the Sea of Cortez, La Paz will be hit, but only by thunderstorms and mild tropical winds as the land between the city and the Sea will sufficiently dampen the worst effects; but this is the scenario to produce the worst effects of the storm, so at worst La Paz is looking at sudden thunderstorms and up to 45knots of wind, mostly from the north and then west as the low pressure system moves by.

However; I believe that it is more likely the system will either head west in a few hours and be torn apart by sheering forces, or it will steer onto land and be torn apart that way. Either way, I believe it is more likely that we will not get any foul weather from this system whatsoever. The pressure here is too high, the sheering forces are too high, and the Sea Surface Temperatures are not high enough.

Enrique will likely miss but could produce stormy conditions as early as Tuesday.