Update 4 September 17:08 PDT: Marie has made its turn left and is now heading due north. It does look as though Marie may continue to turn left and may cross the peninsula. However there are factors that make it difficult to know for sure. The storm could, as forecast by the NHC, make another turn left. What is for sure is that if the storm does not turn right that it will enter a region of sheering which will bleed off moisture and energy to the northeast. This moisture is very likely to cause storms in Bahia Los Angeles, where everyone seems to be going to shelter. This is a bad idea. Bahia Los Angeles is poorly sheltered from thunderstorms. We almost went there but saw days of thunderstorms pass through late June/early July and decided against it.

I will continue to monitor the storm but I will only update if the threat persists or increases. If there are no further updates the storm went safely out to sea or up to San Diego where I could care less what it does.


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Update 4 September 09:25am PDT: Marie has now turned left again and is getting further from the peninsula. It is now unlikely to affect Baja but I will continue to monitor in case conditions change.

I also continue to monitor conditions for the next storm which if it occurs soon, will affect the Baja peninsula potentially as a significant major hurricane.

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Update 4 September 06:37am PDT: Marie moved away from the peninsula but has this morning turned right hard and is now moving parallel to the peninsula. Tomorrow it is predicted to turn left but given what I have observed and which NHC is predicting will cause Lowell to turn north I suggest could cause Marie to turn right also, possibly causing a turn towards the Baja peninsula.

Marie is in 28 degC water and wants to stay there. There are no sheering forces at play. Marie is set to organize, which means the effect area will be shrinking. That area presently does not include the pacific coast with regards to winds though certainly swells are a factor for coastal interests.

I believe the worst case scenario for Marie is that it will cross the peninsula starting at near Bahia Tortugas and ending near Bahia Los Angeles. It could turn right and go east across as far south as Santa Rosalia, but I believe this unlikely.

Sea surface temperatures, if they remain a strong steering factor, will take Marie to Baja. But if the westward momentum is too strong then Marie will likely remain headed north and will diminish as it approaches Baja or even Southern California. It is also entirely possible the sea surface temperatures are unable to affect steering and if Marie is unaffected by the air mass that will affect Lowell, then Marie is likely to simply head safely out to sea well off the coast of Baja.

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Update 9:52pm PDT: Marie is organizing and has diminished its area of effect so that it no longer threatens the peninsula, immediately. There is the possibility of a right turn in a day or two which could put it close to the peninsula or it could even turn hard and cross. I believe if it does it would be north of Bahia Tortugas and likely across to around Bahia Los Angeles.

I doubt it will turn that hard but it is a possibility that must be considered.

The next two or three storms have the potential for worst case scenario.

I will update this entry only if Marie threatens Baja again.

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Update 1:37pm PDT: Marie has turned left and is now moving west northwest, putting distance between the storm and Baja. However; the effects, namely thunderstorms, are affecting the lower peninsula in the Sierra Laguna region. This will likely stretch up to Mulege or even Santa Rosalia by tonight then fade as Marie gets further from the peninsula and organizes and thus shrinks in area of effect.

My concern is the NHC is forecasting, correctly I believe, a right turn for Lowell and Karina on Sunday but not for Marie. I believe this should be accounted for and will mention that if Marie does follow the pattern of the two storms ahead of it, that it could turn right again and head towards the peninsula. If it does, concerns in Baja California (north) should pay attention to this storm. This especially applies to those seeking shelter in Bahia Los Angeles.

Beyond Marie my concern is for the next storm, which has all the potential to either cross or run up the penisula or worse, the Sea of Cortez. I am presently sheltering at the only marina on the Sea of Cortez I trust as it went through and survived Odile as a category 1. Everyone needs to remember that hurricanes are not directly nearly as dangerous as thunderstorms be they monsoonal, seasonal, or those triggered on the fringes of tropical storms. Just because you believe you are safe from a hurricane does not make you safe from the storms they trigger. Think carefully about your plans. Guaymas, Bahia Los Angeles, Loreto, La Paz, Mazatalan, Topolobampo, and even Puerto Penasco are all quite vulnerable to thunderstorms during hurricane season and the remaining extended monsoon season in the northern sea.

Remember that being out on the open sea is sometimes a better option than sheltering where winds and waves can concentrate and broken or improper tackle can lead to going ashore or worse.

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Update 09:00 am PDT: Marie has turned to the right and is now presently moving north northwest, putting the storm closer to the peninsula and increasing the threat. The storm does appear to be steering due to sea surface temperatures.

I will continue to monitor and update this situation. Interests on the pacific coast of Baja as well as Cabo San Lucas and La Paz should monitor this situation and begin steps to prepare for major hurricane conditions.

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I am closely monitoring Marie given that it may be moving closer to the Baja peninsula than the NHC predicts and my location on the Sea of Cortez.

As of this moment, 2:47am 2 September 2026, Marie is slightly west of due south of Cabo San Lucas. The storm is not experiencing nearly as much upwelling in the southeast quardant of the storm. This appears to be due to sea surface temperature differentials as the 30 deg C thermobar runs through the southeast and half of the northeast quadrants. This temperature differential is likely to have a stronger steering effect on the storm than the National Hurricane Center predicts.

Given this, I am suggesting that people on the Pacific coast of Baja prepare for a major hurricane to skirt the coast likely with the eye parallel to the coast and within 100 miles away, meaning outer band effects will affect the Pacific coast of Baja if the storm is steered to the right enough by the sea surface temperatures.

These are the most important hours of this storm, and I will be monitoriing closely with no more than 4 hours lapse for observation and reporting as I have already slept my first 4 hours tonight.

I will add updates to this entry until major news necessitates a separate entry.

Things I will be watching for include an air mass divided by a circulation centered near Vancouver island presently. The eastern portion is likely to steer Marie to the left and thus further from Baja. The western portion will affect Karin first and we can watch what it does. That mass is of importance for the next storms as it may steer them far to the east clear of the Baja penninsula. I may be biased in my speculation due to my location in Baja.

As of 7:29am 2 September, Marie continues to move northwest, and has turned slightly left moving west northwest in the past few hours.