Update 16:05 PDT: I am continuing to watch the system as it meanders up the Sea of Cortez. It had started to move west and is now headed due north and does look to head to Sonora and into Arizona. The sheering forces are high enough to prevent further organization of the system but storms are developing to full intensity where they can. Guaymas has already been hit and promises to see more and more intense activity if the center passes through the area later. All interests in the Sea of Cortez north of Loreto and in Sonora should watch this system.



08:15 PDT: I am watching a rotating air mass coincident with the crest of a tropical wave but too distant to be part of it which has formed and organized in the Sea of Cortez right off La Paz. It is traveling north and at this time is centered off Loreto and traveling north quickly.

As this is extra-tropical, that is created as a result of rotation of the crest of the tropical wave rather than part of the tropical wave itself, it will likely not last very long, as it is not creating low enough pressures because it is not rotating fast enough. Yesterday a similar system came through the same area and faded by the time it got to Mulege. This could last longer but I expect it to behave similar.

Still, be aware, this does have the potential to become a strong extratropical or even genuine tropical storm, and on its present trajectory, could wreak some havoc. Sheering forces are low enough in the sea to support tall systems and the taller the system the more energy it contains and thus releases.

I will monitor this system closely. All interests on the Sea of Cortez should prepare for stormy weather today (outdoor shower time).

Good luck.