Nora IS a Miss, Will Not Directly Affect La Paz 
Sunday, August 29, 2021, 04:21 AM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator
We missed this one. The eye has moved ashore and will be moving even more eastward than the last NHC forecast I looked at, which showed the eye hugging the coast pretty much to San Carlos. It won't even make Mazatlan.

From the perspective of La Paz, there is no threat from Nora. However; Nora's system, the underlying tropical wave, has reduced our pressure sufficient to mean monsoonal thunderstorms (what we have been having, including those fun downdrafts/cloudbursts) will be on the menu, probably large and probably won't miss La Paz.

Enjoy your thunderstorm and be sure to prepare for flash floods.

Nora is going to Mazatlan instead of La Paz.



By the way, I will always stand by my criticism of the NHC. I posted in a prior entry a link and commentary stating that what they wrote was basically "we don't know" in jargon to make themselves look good. I said in my forecasts that I didn't know what was going to happen. That's honesty. I do not have access to the data that the NHC has. I don't have to. I have an understanding, a dynamic model in my mind of how these things work, always improving because I'm always honest with myself and in my forecasts. That kind of self objectivity is vital to learning how to forecast tropical weather, which is of course important to me because my life very much depends on it.

The NHC cannot tell you they don't know what is going to happen. That is because their forecast methodology is to report what they interpret their models as predicting what the storm will do. That is not a wise methodology because the reason we seek forecasts is to know what COULD happen so that we can be prepared. A good forecast tells us if the storm could affect us and what the quality of the data is to tell us, or an interpretation of the quality of the data such as a percentage chance. We need to know what could happen, and what level of confidence there is in the prediction. This guides our decisions in how to prepare for a storm. And that's the whole point of looking at tropical weather forecasts and why I'm sure you who have followed this forecast prefer my forecast to theirs. I tell you what you need to know because I find out what I need to know. I just report what I find and give you as much background data and interpretation as possible.

This is a link to the graphical forecast archive. Play and watch the animation. You will see what "we don't know what is going to happen" looks like, and precisely why I do not like their forecast methodology.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2021/NORA_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_no_line
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