22 Sep 13:00 Just an observation. Polo seems to have broke all records and sits with observed 180mph winds and 892mb pressure!!! Odile was 920mb, and Patricia at 872 peak pressure, was in water that was slightly cooler and was under mild sheer. Polo is very likely to set a record as the most intense hurricane on record, and even stronger than the strongest typhoon, supertypoon Tip from 1979.

What is interesting to observe is the sheer size of the tropical wave associated with Polo, which extends into Arizona! However; the susequent wave extends north of Florida! The amount of energy is intense and I have never observed waves this big though that does not mean they have not occurred.

In reading about Patricia it seems that winds through the Gulf of Tonohapec have a significant effect on the development of storms in the area where Polo is sitting, which is probably both contributing to the size, as well as keeping Polo away from land.

We will see what happens. But, folks, this is already history!

Finally, I am seeing that Polo is now extracting energy from its immediate region and is sending it up along the tropical wave north and across the rockies and up into Canada. Polo can stall for a couple of days and still extract energy. The good news is that another record breaking storm is unlikely to form now.


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Update 22 Sep 10:45 Polo is stalled, but Odalys is now on an express train straight for the peninsula and promises to create some interesting conditions when it starts to enter the sphere of influence of Polo. Odalys is suffering from high sheering and is being torn apart, but the circulation remains and will affect Polo if it gets close.

This is a very dynamic situation that I believe no one can predict. Therefore, I strongly recommend preparing for the worst. It certainly cannot hurt. We have already arranged to shelter on the safest dock on the Sea of Cortez, a dock that survived Odile unscathed while the rest of the port was destroyed (minus the marina we are in now.)

Good luck to everyone. And be aware, this is my last summer in Mexico or for that matter in waters affected by tropical storms.



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Update 22 Sep 07:46 First and foremost is that there is time missing from both GOES East and GOES West on the SSEC server I use for those satellite images. I need to check other sources, but I am missing from 09:51 to 11:56UTC on both feeds, which leaves me without that time in which Polo strengthened significantly.

I am hopeful this is a glitch on the website, not the satellite.


What I do see is that Polo is stalled, not budging an inch. It has also moved southeast a few dozen miles while growing in size as it strengthened, not touching shore in Michoacan and beyond.

The storm looks to me to be still associated with its originating tropical wave, which I interpret as being the primary steering mechanism. The glitch on the feed happened immediately after my previous update (suspiciously) which is preventing me from further analyzing the events I outlined earlier, the shifting of the sheering forces. Those have dissolved and sheering is consistent now along the wavefront - and it is light which has allowed Polo to become the fastest growing and I believe now biggest pacific hurricane since Patricia a few years ago, and I believe Polo has exceeded Patricia.

Let's just hope Polo does what Patricia did, otherwise we are looking at a potential doomsday scenario for all of the Sea of Cortez.


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Alert: 22 Sep 02:18: Polo could be a worst case scenario and travel up the Sea of Cortez as a Category 5 storm!!!

Polo has experienced extreme rapid strengthening over the past few hours and especially in the past FEW MINUTES! I am waiting for further satellite images to see what has happened and how it will affect the storm, but in examining the images I noticed what could be the most violent change in wind sheer on a grand scale. Apparently a "gust" of the jet stream came down from the pacific northwest into the Gulf of Mexico (FUT) and literally blew the wind sheer off of Polo, allowing strenghtening I have never seen happen so quickly and it is still ongoing, I have to wait for satellite images to see how much this is going to increase.

What I witnessed and I think what may have woken me was a drastic shift in upper level winds caused by this gust from the jetstream. It came down into the Gulf of Mexico (FUT) and blasted everything around it, pushing the sheer in the entire area including all of the Sea of Cortez where it went from northeast to northwest in the span of about an hour!

This removed all sheer from Polo, which has been drifting southward, I assume due to the upper level winds steering it against the steering of the sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Now that those sheering forces are no longer in play, SSTs will likely take a larger role and pull the storm north, but this gust from the jetstream is still in play and gives no means or measure by which to predict what it will do to Polo.

What I have seen so far looking at images as I write suggests that Polo will be moving north to northeast. Another change in the jet stream is on its way and could provide just as violent a change as happened now, leaving predictability uncertain. But I do suspect the storm is going to start heading northeast within the hour and that further developments must be monitored to determine where the storm will go from there. NHC predicts it will move in a direction where it crosses the peninsula north of La Paz however being well north of La Paz gives me bias to want to believe that the NHC always erroring to the left of where the storms actually go does not overcome the possibility the storm could come north.

I actually believe that these direction changes are coming sooner than NHC models are predicting and that the storm will head further left and likely miss Baja entirely. But, I am a rational being and am preparing for the worst, not what I hope will happen. You should as well.


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Update 21 Sep 18:15 Polo has formed an eye, meaning sheering forces have been overcome and strenghtening has begun. Sea surface temperatures are going to still be quite high on the northern side of the storm which will cause steering. From looking at the patterns of movement of relevant air masses, it appears that Polo will be moving along with the edge of the tropical wave. If it continues on that path it will likely head straight up Baja and I believe head east across the sea around Loreto or a bit north and end up in Huatabampo. However if the storm does separate from the tropical wave, it may steer clear of the peninsula and out to sea as the NHC is predicting.

I am in Santa Rosalia. We will be watching this storm very carefully to see what we need to do, what we can do.

If you are in Cabo or La Paz, you need to prepare for the worst and keep a close eye on this storm.


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Update 21 Sep 15:40PDT Polo is strengthening as it begins to drift south. An eyewall has formed but is quite obscured by sheered upper level clouds. The sheering has diminshed of course, which I suspect is due to the air mass causing the sheering to fall as it has pushed the system slightly southward. What this means is that the mass that was keeping Polo in place has begun to move on and no longer keep Polo stalled.

Things will happen quickly now. If you are in southern BCS or in Mazatlan or Topolobampo, keep an eye on this system.


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Update 21 Sep 12:20PDT Polo is stalled off Michoacan at the moment. It has strengthened but is still under too much sheer at this time to develop further, and it is presently stalled. I cannot tell where it is going to go from here yet but the possibility of threat to the Baja peninsula is still enough to warrant real concern.

At the moment, the sheering is too high. From looking at the system on high resolution 1 minute satellite feed it is obvious that the sheering is preventing full strenghtening of the system because storms on the north side of the system, the top of the tropical wave, are not fully formed whereas the ones on the southern aspects are fully developed which elongates the circulation and prevents an eyewall from forming.

The storm is however producing hurricane strength winds and thus tell us that if the sheering forces diminish this storm will strengthen and likely move in the direction from which the sheering forces eminate, which is north northwest at the moment, leaving us with a predicted path just to the left of the Peninsula.

However; this is almost the exact pattern followed by Odile in 2014, a season which is quite similar to this year except for the fact it is delayed (read: longer). Odile stalled in sheering forces that when released sent Odile straight up the peninsula as it strengthened extremely rapidly.

We are looking at similar conditions for Polo as we saw for Odile, and as such I will be closely monitoring this situation.

If you are in Cabo or La Paz, prepare for up to Category 5 conditions.


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I am combining these forecasts in consideration for the fact that both storms at this moment potentially could affect the Baja Peninsula and are therefore both of equal concern and merit a single forecast.

Polo has stalled off Michoacan and is building strength. The question is where will it go next. The bad news is, likely towards the southern tip of Baja according to NHC, but its anyone's guess at this point. The bad news is this is using up energy in the nursery for storms that would otherwise affect the Baja peninsula, reducing the chances of subsequent storms affecting Baja.

Odalys is unsteady but getting big and going through eyewall replacements. It is also stalled and building strength.

Odalys seems less likely to organize and build up due to a higher sheer environment at the moment but that is likely to change as air masses move in and steer Odalys back towards the Baja peninsula.

I will be keeping a close eye on both of these storms and will update this post as applicable.