Update 19:50: Simon is moving north now and will remain close to Acapulco as it heads nearly due north, not northwest away from land as the NHC is forecasting. They haven't run the model since at least Friday and are just adjusting the track to match the predicted location at the end of the forecast period predicted by the model run on Friday. It's quite pathetic to witness because its so obvious that they are cheating in doing their job. You and I would have better luck consulting AI than relying on the NHC to do it for us, because that's all they do anymore.

Simon has entered an air mass with a higher degree of sheer which should weaken it as predicted, but don't count on it. If you are in the southern Sea of Cortez, keep an eye on this blog or at least keep an eye on the storm and do not assume you are safe from it. It's not over until it's over.



Update 11 Oct 9:30PDT: Rachel didn't go exactly where the NHC said it was going to go, and I have downloaded a couple of images to show why the NHC cannot be trusted for Baja tropical weather forecasting and why you must consult experts like me or do the forecasting yourselves.

Please click on these links to see two forecast updates from the NHC regarding Rachel, numbers 55 and 55a, three hours apart:

https://disperser.info/blog/images/Rachel55.png

https://disperser.info/blog/images/Rachel55a.png

Note the disparity in the location of the storm. 55a is correct but still shows the same forecast track.

This is because they are lazy and do not actually concern themselves with where the storm actually is. They simply run the models with the position forecast by the previous run. I have seen this time and time again, repeatedly on EVERY SINGLE FORECAST EVERY SINGLE YEAR SINCE 2014 when I started following the forecasts.

The NHC are incompetent. They are not meteorologists, they are permanent interns who run models for the lazy bosses who are too busy trading child porn and snorting cocaine do to their actual job that you and I and other American taxpayers pay them to do.

And now, Simon is going elsewhere after people in Acapulco were ready to receive the eye of a category 5 hurricane. No, that's not a bad thing. I believe the forecast should ALWAYS include EVERY POSSIBLE PATH a hurricane COULD take. But the NHC does not forecast that way, they forecast based on ego which wants to be right about what it wants to be right about, which is where the hurricane WILL go, not where it COULD GO and WHO it COULD AFFECT.

So, please keep a close eye on Simon if you are in the Sea of Cortez basin. It is not going to destroy Alcapulco and go safely inland. It is going to run along the coast, possibly up to Topolobampo, and it is going to destroy beaches and ports along the way as it maintains major hurricane status fed by 31-32degC waters.

The good news for everyone who won't be directly affected is that after Simon passes, we will all have much cooler weather.

Now, give the NHC a call and give them your two cents about paying better attention to their jobs.



Update 9 Oct 20:00PDT: Rachel is still headed further east than predicted and appears to be headed towards Bahia Los Angeles. Either way it does appear that there will be thunderstorms on the upper baja peninsula and that these will drive over the sea of Cortez and affect shelters such as Santa Rosalia and Bahia Los Angeles.

Simon appears to also be headed east of forecast but it is still too soon to tell.



Rachel has made its turn east and is heading due east, not northeast as the NHC has predicted. I do not yet see any elements which would cause steering to the north but I will keep an eye. Given the storm is headed due east in our direction, we are certainly keen to make sure where it is going.

Simon is strengthening and appears to be moving further west than the NHC predicted which is making a nightmare scenario more likely in which the storm heads up the Sea of Cortez. I will keep an eye on this storm as well. Meanwhile, preparation!

I will note that I tried writing a post explaining Sea of Cortez weather but it was deleted due to this blog logging me out while I was writing it. Frankly I don't care. I don't owe anyone anything and its actually quite the reverse. If you people want my advice either come get it personally as you help me with what I need help with in my disabled condition, or help me find help instead of continuing to censor me and keep me in your faces trying to find people who aren't sleeping AI powered zombies like all of you.

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