The microtropical system that went through the Sea of Cortez relieved a significant amount of tropical/monsoonal energy and has cleared out some of the heat and humidity from the Sea of Cortez. This has reduced the energy supply for seasonal thunderstorms but it does allow for low pressure to return to the region and create further local storms.

I will be monitoring these storms.

Right now I am concerned with the nursery for tropical storms which can affect the Baja peninsula. A pair of tropical waves in close succession are pouring into the tropical convergence zone, the nursery where tropical weather develops. These waves are confronting a high degree of sheer which is stifling organization and therefore development of tropical systems. But, things can change quick and the nursery for storms which can affect Baja is very close to Baja and does not provide much warning.

So for now, keep an eye on this blog and other prognostications for tropical weather and look out for the formation of tropical systems. If anything forms in the next two to four weeks, it is possible it could affect the Baja peninsula as a major storm.

I do not see the sea surface temperatures yet for yesterday and if they reveal anything significant I will report here.

Good luck.

Update:

I neglected to discuss in detail what happened yesterday and this summer and why these events are so significant to everyone on the entire planet and especially all boaters everywhere.

What happened on the Sea of Cortez this summer was starting in late June, we were trapped under a heat dome that extended from the top of the sea into the open pacific at times. This air mass was heavy, humid, and did not move and therefore provided energy for storms that went nowhere. Because the energy of these storms never left the region, the storms just moved around all summer...until yesterday.

A tropical wave spawned a slight tropical development which in turn, and interacting with remnants of Marie, formed a small extratropical system (technically extratropical because it was spawned by tropical circulation to its south) which behaved exactly like a tropical system. This system was big enough to pierce through the "heat dome" over the Sea of Cortez and drained a signifcant amount of the trapped energy. Being out today I can easily feel the difference as the temperature and humidity combination before today was borderline causing heat rash on me and my ability to tolerate being outside was quite limited. Now I can be outside all day as long as I do not exert myself!

How much energy was released is not clear, but it was significant given the storms spawned by the moisture leaving the Sea of Cortez for Arizona and states to the north and east, and given the difference in temperature and humidity.

The question is, has this reduced the amount of energy so that we no longer experience local thunderstorms? If not, it is entirely possible that the relief of energy may trigger a drop in air pressure which in turn triggers more storms.

This is how these things work and I am deeply upset that the government and private weather services do not consider the energy. Indeed, it is the only thing that matters. Everything is based on the energy, though admittedly this is difficult to quantify at least on an absolute basis.

When watching weather, especially tropical weather, bear this in mind. Weather is all about energy. We use that same energy in small amounts to sail. So understanding the aspects of that energy that is one of our most dangerous concerns is a good idea.

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