11 Sep 08:57PDT: Norbert has gone way north of where the NHC said it was going. It appears that the trajectory is being influenced by the subsequent tropical wave, which already shows evidence of rotation and therefore organization and potential to influence Norbert even more. These waves have been quite numerous and tightly packed this year, which makes for predicting these storms a very difficult task indeed. But traditional models and I doubt even AI can account for the changes that I have been tracking since 2014. We are in a similar cycle as 2014 and coinidentally have the same name cycle. But the next storms are alreay forming that coincide with their spawning and movement towards the Baja peninsula. We are at least 3 storms delayed for that change, and I am watching for it very carefully because I am potentially in the path of what could be another destructive hurricane.

Norbert has shifted to the north and the patch of cool water created by Marie has given way to 26 degC waters which support hurricanes. The subsequent tropical wave has already shifted to far west to threaten the peninsula, but there remains the slight possibility that it or even Norbert could turn towards the peninsula.

As I had myself planned to go to Bahia Los Angeles, I want to again warn the people who have sheltered there to be very cautious. The storm you are experiencing as I write this is a harbinger for what could come. First of all, more storms WILL come. Second, with the sea surface temperatures at 26 NORTH of Bahia Tortugas, Bahia Los Angeles could very well see a full force hurricane within the next two months.

Please do not let down your guard.



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9 Sep 15:30: Norbert is now officially 14E and is predicted to head nearly due west. I will nevertheless be watching the progress but do believe that Norbert cannot come to the peninsula. Hawaii is another story and given Lowel I will continue to monitor Norbert for the sake of interests in Hawaii.

More importantly is that the following tropical wave looks unlikley to form any systems. We may be in another pattern of non development, which would be beneficial to my location, as another couple of weeks closes the window for storms heading towards the upper peninsula. The souther peninsula is another story altogether and frankly I don't care. Interests in La Paz would be wise to distrust my forecasts as I am heavily biased towards seeing you fucking scumbags suffer.

Generally speaking, thunderstorms remain a risk though their intensity is generally diminishing. Remain vigilant folks, these storms are often more dangerous than tropical storms.

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9 Sep 08:20am: Norbert is still moving northwest to west-northwest and appears that it will not be steering towards the peninsula.

Interestingly I am watching the complex interactions between remnants of Marie, Norbert as it forms, and the following tropical wave. These have created a circulation over Mexico that is bringing conditions for storms to form up the Sea of Cortez. Storms are forming now south of Mulege and now off Santa Rosalia, though they are small.



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9 Sep 01:00PDT: Norbert is forming rapidly under ideal conditions and has stalled for now. Norbert has moved westward but it may still be possible for it to head back northeast, especially considering the tropical wave for Marie has stalled with the remnants, which continue to give the California coast a wild gift and a wet one to the northern great plains.

Norbert is being compressed between Marie's tropical wave and the following which could develop into Odalys, which if it does form will almost certainly threaten the Baja peninsula. I am watching this situation intensely due to my location in Santa Rosalia, BCS, about the center of the western shore of the Sea of Cortez.

As you can see from the news, the NHC's persistent forecast that Hawaii would be missed by Lowell was once again misguided and poor forecasting that cost one life and fortunately not much more, at least so far.

Perhaps if we were governed by people who cared (we are supposed to be governed by ourselves...whatever happened to that?)


Some additional thoughts after this update: After studying the tropical waves associated with Lowell, Marie, Norbert, and the following, I have observed what seems to be to be the forcing of the following tropical wave towards Mexico which puts the formation of any system in the nursery where storms like Odile, Norma, Jimena, and others have formed that have affected the peninsula. Normally this has already happened and it appears to be on the same general schedule as 2014, a year which shares storm names with this year (Odile was retired in trade for Odalys). If Odalys forms, it could be steered by the sea surface temperatures that remain along and in fact on both sides of Baja. This could be another year for major damaging storms on the peninsula. The only way it won't be is if conditions change soon, where there looks to be no mechanism to bring about such change.

Just start preparing now.
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8 Sep 16:00: Norbert has formed south of puerto San Carlos and east of the southern Mexican border and is presently heading approximately northwest to slightly west of that heading. It is headed almost directly for the cooler waters created by Marie which promise to steer the storm either towards or away from the peninsula. At this point the storm appears to be west of this point so unless Norber hooks a hard right we are looking at a storm that will drift northwest, form as a strong hurricane if sheering forces remain as they are, and remain safely out in the pacific.

These are my preliminary predictions. The NHC, the only thing I follow other than satellite and SSTs, has not even acknowledged Norbert has organized. It has done so quite rapidly and promises to be a strong hurricane. It appears that conditions are and will remain ripe for development of this storm.

It is my estimation that the net effect of this storm will be cooling the seas west of what Marie cooled. This will leave a band of hot water along the pacific coast of the Baja peninsula which, along with the 30+ degC water, will continue to feed thunderstorm formation in the hills and on the water while tropical low pressure waves pass overhead, as is happening today.

I will be keeping a close eye on this storm as well as the conditions on the Sea of Cortez. I have already noticed storms are likely in the entire spanse of the sea from Puerto Penasco to Mazatlan. We experienced our first storm early this morning though it was still an indirect hit as we experienced no lightning nearby and only mild conditions. We were actually sandwiched between storms forming on the sea near Isla Tortuga and those occurring as a result of the air mass and updrafts from the storms in sea, which of course formed in the mountains of the peninsula. We did get a squall from the sea based storms but the wind shifted back and forth after about 30 minutes of wind off the sea.

The storms have gotten mild because of the lack of input energy from the sun due to the day length shortening and angle of incidence decreasing. But they remain dangerous to sailors and in fact have gotten more dangerous because they are smaller, but still just as intense where they do occur.

Good luck to everyone.

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