I am tired of correcting the NHC and either warning everyone or telling everyone not to worry.

It is obvious that the present means of presenting hurricane forecasts does not meet the interests of either sailors nor those who live or happen to be in areas affected by hurricanes.

I make my predictions not based on where the hurricane is likely to go, which seems to be the egocentric means by which the arrogant folks at the National Hurricane Center prefer to use. Their primary concern is being right, something I experienced firsthand when communicating with them during an incident in which the NHC were presenting forecasts based on previous forecast rather than observations.

The NHC is located in Florida and does not consider the actual interests of anyone else. All the NHC is concerned with is being seen as being the authority on hurricane prediction (they are the authority, they just didn't earn the title, it was given to them.)

My predictions are based on the interests in a forecast area. I do not care about high seas interests with regards to where a storm will go as high seas interests should not rely on predicted movements of tropical weather and should either avoid the region if they are incapable or avoid the storm on their own.

What I do care about is giving people the chance to properly prepare for what could come. In other words, I don't predict based on the perspective of the hurricane, as the NHC does, I predict based on the perspective of the people who might be affected by the hurricane. It's the human and therefore proper perspective.

So, if the nice folks at the NHC or any other entity that monitors and predicts tropical weather, here is my proposed prediction methodology:

Present not where the storm is most likely to go, but rather predict what interests in the region should prepare based on where the storm COULD go while noting where the predictions suggest it is LIKELY to go, and in these predictions, include days-out preparations, that is, include how many days out the storm is expected before arriving, where possible.

Also include the strength predictions of the storm based not on what the storm is expected to be, but what it COULD be, a range between predicted maximum and minimum intensities possible and a likely range.

This combination gives interested parties fully informed predictions that tell people exactly what they need to hear: is there a possibility of a storm coming, what strength, and when; so that people can decide what preparations to make based on the possibility of being affected by and the potential intensity of the storm.

So for example, in my predictions about Marie, concurrent with this post, I should include potential intensity and expected landfall of the storm so that people in the areas I suggest may be affected can make proper preparations.

The idea is that if you are in the area where a hurricane could affect you, you would like to know if a storm could affect you, and how badly it could affect you, and the soonest it is expected to arrive. This way you can begin preparing based on worst case scenario without having to decide what to do if the storm surprised everyone and came straight over you at higher than predicted strength, as has been the case in almost every major hurricane on Baja in recent decades.


The basis for my predictions is human. I have empathy, a lot of it, and despite how you people universally treat me (like shit) I still care enough to give you knowledge to protect yourselves. But to be honest, my motivations are changing and its best to consider that I do these predictions more for myself than anyone else. Be aware of that when I am no longer on the Sea of Cortez or concerned about sharing my thoughts. My predictions are proven to be consistently more accurate than the NHC's, so they WILL be missed. Norma is a good example. I was incarcerated illegally at the time by Mr. Daniel Shroyer and his corrupt cartel of lawyers, cops, and politicians. La Paz got hit hard and only the manager of the hotel we stayed at knew what the storm was going to do before it hit, and I knew that from seeing only one short satellite feed. Despite not being able to prepare for that storm, as you can see by the entry from August 6th, I already knew a major hurricane would hit La Paz, and had set up my anchors for such an event, as demonstrated by the fact Disperser is still where I anchored it.

When I am no longer here to predict storms, you will be stuck with the engocentric NHC and their pathetic AI which, get this, is trained based on the NHC's flawed predictions without being aware of the anthrocentric errors behind them. In other words, AI is being trained to make the same mistakes humans make without being aware they are mistakes. AI is being taught that humans are more perfect than they actually are. And if you do not see how dangerous that is, you deserve to be in the eye of a major hurricane that somehow wasn't predicted to hit you.

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