Enrique has performed a worst case and appears to be headed directly for La Paz. Except, it isn't an organized tropical system of any significant power. It appears to be causing storms to develop on the peninsula ahead of the center of circulation, or the circulation is heavily skewed from top to bottom. It's hard to tell with the resolution of imagery I am left with thanks to the gutting of America's academia of contributors.

I don't expect much. I've been through many tropical systems, including being through the eye of a system much stronger than this (Javier I believe). I expect gusty and variable winds from random directions, thunderstorms, and maybe a bit of a storm surge, but that's about it. Everything will be mild.


Update:

I am actually having trouble seeing where the center of circulation of the system is. The center of the clouds forming is south of La Paz and over land. The apparent lower level circulation appears to be over the sea south of San Jose del Cabo, and is what is causing the clouds to form and rain to fall on La Paz. But there is also evidence of circulation east of La Paz in the Sea of Cortez, which is where the NHC says the center of circulation is.

I am keeping an eye on the barometer, which isn't moving so far.

Enrique is presently southeast of La Paz having started across the Sea of Cortez. It is going to come ashore at about Los Barrilles and scoot across in a west northwesterly direction with the center of circulation crossing back into the pacific about due west of La Paz.

There is every possibility the center of rotation could hit the bay of La Paz, which is where I am anchored. This will produce intense winds of varying direction and velocity but no more than 35 knots. It is more likely that interaction with land will disintegrate any remnants of the storm and it's capability to affect La Paz.

The lack of warm enough water, moisture, and calm upper level winds means what's left of Enrique will be an inconvenience at worst.

Goodnight.

Enrique's wind field appears to be sustaining itself. The wind field looks like it could affect La Paz, giving us gusty winds from the NNE at first, then the north. It has begun moving rapidly and I expect it to move through in less than 24 hours. But, I am taking down shadecloth and securing loose items in anticipation of a nice bit of harvesting wind energy.

Prepare for a day of wind and otherwise enough some nice cool and relatively dry weather. For those at anchor, remember the current isn't as strong, but check your ground tackle anyway.

Enrique has just arrived to La Paz, as you can tell by looking out at the clear sky with the band of cumulus clouds stretching north and south over the hills east of town. That is the outer band of what used to be Enrique.

Enrique burned out overnight due to lack of energy to support it's tropical storm nature.

I have learned a great deal from this storm in order to better understand tracking of tropical systems which will vastly improve my ability to more accurately forecast these events. I have already proven I can better predict eastern pacific tropical weather better than the National Hurricane Center.

Enrique is of relatively low pressure due in part to a combination of circumstances surrounding atmospheric conditions related to global climate change; specifically the developing stalling of the jet stream which I expect to realize this summer. These effects are already profoundly affecting tropical weather which is vital because the NHC and NOAA and other forecasters use computer models which cannot consider these novel conditions. As such, the NHC is incapable of prediction of tropical weather with any degree of accuracy, especially as exemplified here by my far more accurate prediction than the NHC forecast, which can be seen here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2021/ENRIQUE_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_no_line

This pressure isn't low enough given the sea surface temperatures in order to suck up moisture from the ocean, which fuels tropical cyclones and turns them into storms. As of now, Enrique is no more than a played out bit of wind circulating in the Sea of Cortez making it difficult for the Baja Ferries to cross and not much else.

I was better able to predict both the path and intensity of the system despite having perhaps 1/10th of the data that the NHC forecasters have available to them. Why? Because I do not have computer models to mislead me from examining what's actually happening and how it will interact. While computers are better at predicting the movements and changes of air masses, the computers can't compensate for novel circumstances.

The fact is, computer models no longer work for predicting weather. Weather forecasting must then be done as it has always been done - without computers.


Enrique is presently in the opening of the Sea of Cortez, exactly where I said it would go as the worst possible circumstances. But the sea is too narrow, the land too dry, the upper level winds too strong, and the sea too cool for the pressure of the system to allow formation of even simple thunderstorms.

Enrique is done, will not affect La Paz except for some beautiful skies and a spectacular sunset.

Enrique has stalled at the 28 degree sea surface temperature (SST) contour and is disintegrating. The energy just isn't there to feed the cyclone and there are no air masses to steer the system so it is just sitting in the opening of the Sea of Cortez using up SST energies.

There is still the possibility that this system could move north as predicted by the NHC, but if the system does move north as they say, it will be a low pressure system and nothing more, no storm, except what forms from rain shadows and which here in La Paz are never really that severe anyway.

It is my guess that the system will burn itself out over the course of today and tonight and begin moving whatever direction the steering patterns will take it, which could be northeast or due west. But where it does is irrelevant to us here in La Paz. All that matters is what is possible to happen here so we can be prepared, and at this point, prepare for some thunderstorms and otherwise a nice pleasant but hot and humid week.

Enrique is heading north along the 26 degree contour line. It has a narrow band of sufficient sea surface temperatures to draw from and isn't going to last long whatever happens. It is already interacting both with the cold waters to the west and land to the east. The band does widen and gives some leeway for at least maintaining the system, but its more likely than not that it will burn out before it can give La Paz any significant effects.

I expect, at most, 45knots of wind and about 36 hours of intermittent thunderstorms of varying intensity, and that's if the system goes along the center of the Sea of Cortez and comes over La Paz, the worst case scenario for this system. What is most likely is that the system will burn out within 12 hours so much that it cannot rebuild sufficiently to throw anything at La Paz except some wind and maybe some local thunderstorms of only moderate severity.

Don't be surprised to see the system either veer west or east and quickly fade if the system to the north can uncouple it from the tropical wave.

Enjoy Monday, get ready for some rain and wind, but don't be surprised if we stay dry.


Oh, and there's a link below to the NHC forecast, which I haven't read yet.

Enrique has slotted itself into the northward flow I was concerned about. There is still some question as to which direction it will go and the range couldn't be higher. There's really no way of knowing exactly what is going to happen, but my thought is that the storm is going to go ahead and start tracking up the Sea of Cortez. It will be interacting with land as it does, which will diminish its strength, and it will be over only 26-27 degree water, so not enough to continue to build, especially in light of upper level winds which will tend to sheer the top of the system westward.

If the storm tracks up the Sea of Cortez, La Paz will be hit, but only by thunderstorms and mild tropical winds as the land between the city and the Sea will sufficiently dampen the worst effects; but this is the scenario to produce the worst effects of the storm, so at worst La Paz is looking at sudden thunderstorms and up to 45knots of wind, mostly from the north and then west as the low pressure system moves by.

However; I believe that it is more likely the system will either head west in a few hours and be torn apart by sheering forces, or it will steer onto land and be torn apart that way. Either way, I believe it is more likely that we will not get any foul weather from this system whatsoever. The pressure here is too high, the sheering forces are too high, and the Sea Surface Temperatures are not high enough.

Enrique will likely miss but could produce stormy conditions as early as Tuesday.

I am having to examine details of systems that have influence on steering this system in order to ascertain what is going to happen. My only concern is whether or not the system could affect me. At this point, it does look as though the system is going to steer north, back towards the coast of Mexico.

I base this on the apparent degradation of a system that has upper level winds blowing west southwest where they would normally be blowing the opposite way this time of year. The system to the north northeast appears to be the only thing preventing the system from moving north.

If I had to guess, I would say the system is going to come closest to Guadalajara as it skims or comes along shore and that it and its effects will remain in the Sea of Cortez and along the mainland shore until around Mazatlan, more or less. This highly depends on the waning influence of the system to the northeast and the arm of the jetstream driving it. I no longer have access to my jetstream animations as the website operator died in a car accident last year and I have not yet replaced that resource and thus cannot better predict movements of air masses.

The influence of this system to the northeast is incredibly important. If any of this system's influence remains, it will drive any, or perhaps all, of Enrique's rain bands and influence towards or perhaps even on top of La Paz. This is highly unlikely of course, but a possibility that at this point remains.

I am of course monitoring the movements of these systems and will report back when I know significantly enough more to report. Air pressure is now being monitored also to determine how local weather will be affected by the system. It is presently 1013mmHg on my hydrometer.

For now, it is unlikely but still possible that Enrique will affect La Paz with at minimum heavy thunderstorms and tropical storm force winds.

Enrique has formed south southeast of Baja in the midst of limited SSTs which support its continued development. Enrique has now stalled as of this posting, and is poised to follow high SSTs either due west or north northeast along the coast.

The current NHC forecast appears to be a consensus of models which show these distinctly different paths. There is little to support movement of the system that way especially considering the SSTs and the fact that the system as stalled at the edge of the 26deg contour.

If the system does head north northwest along the Pacific coast as the NHC forecast suggests, the upper level winds will tear what's left of it apart. The SSTs are very low on this path.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep5+shtml/025018.shtml?cone#contents

The path will likely take the system due west. There is a great deal of wind sheer and little to support the system if it heads north. West, it can move with the upper level flows and retain some form to allow it to continue to transfer energy from warmer SSTs. Going north, the system would be shredded by strong upper level winds, winds which are actually the jetstream in what I believe are its final throes before it stalls in its oscillation.

SO, the storm won't go the way the NHC says it will go as of this posting and I believe it more likely to go west than north.

I have a rather singular perspective of people, or should I say, my general perspective of people is probably a lot stronger than any individual view I have of any single person I have ever known. That is to say, I mostly see everyone as the same. Mostly because to my credit, I get taken advantage of because I tend to project myself onto others. So while I try to see everyone as I see myself, I end up seeing everyone as other, and that other is in far too many ways identical and always has been.

In short, I see people as the same, and not in a good way. In fact, I hate everyone.

But there is a very good reason for this, and it involves who you are which in my perspective consists of everyone I have ever met and interacted with or observed. Early in my life, almost every person I interacted with in my life bullied or otherwise treated me poorly. I cannot overstate how badly I was treated: I was literally bullied by most people I knew including my own family. I had to run home from school from 2nd through the 5th grade in elementary school because I would get beat up otherwise, and sometimes I didn't escape. I recall at least two occasions when I was surrounded by kids who beat me.

I eventually stopped the bullying by hitting the biggest bully back in 5th grade. It started again when I moved to Oklahoma right after 6th grade, but I quickly turned it around and became popular instead. At least, until I was molested and raped in a youth shelter where my mother had abandoned me for the second time (that I remember...).

But after I suffered brain damage, it started again. Actually, it continued later in my adolescence, I just had better control over my reactions and exposure to it through life choices I had control over. But brain damage, and being trapped in a situation because of my disability, meant that the bullying turned much worse. Even the brain damage was the result of bullying and bullying kept me from at least getting compensation from the landlord as I couldn't find a lawyer to sue for what were obviously injuries the fault of a negligent landlord. I was bullied by the courts even in my attempt to sue on my own.

The bullying is what drove me to leave the USA, and it is bullying that led me to do so on a sailboat, something I had never even considered given my hatred of the ocean until that point.

The bullying in my life has been so bad, and so universal, that it is how I see all people alive today. It is the only safe way for me to interact with people because if I don't assume I will be taken advantage of, I almost always am.

So, my perspective, how I see you, is as a greedy, self interested person who would sooner take anything and everything from me as look at me. I see you as so selfish and self absorbed as to not care about anything but your own immediate pleasure. And the fact that not one single person has answered my public pleas for help in the 17 years I have been trying to deal with brain damage says that my views of you are universal and apply to each and every one of you without exception. The only thing even remotely close has been quite sinister; the offer of conditional help in the name of appearances only. That is, people offering help with strings attached, and only in an effort to show others how good they are, not to actually do something good. Conspicuous, fake charity. No thanks.


I'm not going to apologize for seeing you this way if you are not. The fact is, you stand on the sidelines and do nothing, and that is what makes bullying happen. It doesn't happen in the absence of at least tacit consent. And that makes every single one of you a participant.

I hate you. And that applies to every single person alive today.

What you don't understand is how much I long to make exceptions, lots of exceptions.

Please, someone. Prove me wrong, but not for an audience. Prove to me that I'm not the only human being left on this planet (that uses the internet that is...)

The present campaign to shame white people for supposedly supporting slavery simply because they are white is in itself a racist effort, and should be seen for what it is: an attempt to divert attention away from the cause of the problems we are suffering today which is the same as the cause of problems like slavery.

Every white person on earth did not own slaves. And not every slave owner was white. And then there is the slave trade itself; hardly the domain of whites.

There is however a solid connection between those who owned slaves, ran the slave trade, and the elites of today: they are one in the same from humanity’s perspective. The people who traded and kept slaves, and the corporate and other elite of today are not actually human, but psychopaths, people lacking empathy and thus the ability to see the world from anything but their own selfish perspective.

And it is these people who kept and traded in human life when it was acceptable somehow to do so. Were it possible today, these same kind of people would be the ones trading and keeping slaves. Having been made a slave myself, I can confirm that if there are slaves kept and traded today, they are kept and traded by psychopaths.

Guess who is telling us that all white people need to take responsibility for the crimes of the elite of the past. That’s right, the elite of today, the psychoapths of today want you to take the blame for their past crimes! And they are succeeding in actually causing massive and unjust discrimination against white people which is destroying the United States of America from within, especially as the efforts, including so-called Critical Race Theory, reaches into the US Military.

The notion that we everyday people are somehow responsible for the sins and crimes and inhuman behavior of the past is preposterous. But people are letting themselves be convinced and it is becoming true. And those who believe themselves better, the psychopaths who are not even human, are laughing all the way to the central bank.

On the 26th of May, 2021, I began to remember the events of the winter of 1983, when I was raped by my counselor, a man named Francis who worked for Kay County, Oklahoma as a counselor for children at a county run shelter.

After repeated incidents of fondling and kissing me in the office during which time I was hypnotized by Francis, he invited me to his home. I remember being invited into the basement and anally penetrated after being convinced that I would enjoy it. I do not yet recall all of the details of the incident, but have always remembered coming home afterwards and trying to kill myself with my pocket knife, and stabbing my pillow instead, through the Garfield comic I had drawn onto the pillow case with Francis some time prior.

This incident drastically changed my life as it came as I was doing extremely well socially, having become the most popular kid in school. I had even asked the most popular girl in school out, who had said yes. Despite this, because of this incident, I had decided to go ahead and let my mother send me back to live with my father, denying myself any possibility of continuing the efforts of building a social life I never had the opportunity to have living with my father because I was heavily bullied.

I have attempted to report this incident to the Ponca City Police Department, Kay County Sheriffs Department, and Federal Bureau of Investigation, all of whom have ignored or made fun of my report.

I would very much like to sue Kay County, Oklahoma, the Kay County Youth Shelter, and either the man or his estate, for the extreme damage this incident caused me.

I studied wolves, among many other things. One thing I learned about wolves and other canines is that their saliva has antimicrobial properties; that is, it will, kill bacteria or viruses that might happen to be in their wounds; which they then swallow and which provides them with natural vaccination.

And I just now realized after reading about the accuracy of anal swabs for testing for COVID-19, why it is that I have absolutely no fear of this or any other respiratory coronavirus; and which confirms my suspicions on why people are dying of it.

Anal swabs test for viral particles that have passed through the digestive system. Now, while it is entirely possible, with a PCR test and a high enough cycle count to amplify incidental particles; the reason the test is far more accurate than a nasal swab is because the viral particles must pass through the digestive system.

Now, for the viral particles to pass through digestive system in sufficient quantity to be reliably detected by a test, they must have passed through in significant quantity, in this case, by absorption of respiratory mucous into the digestive system, a very common occurrence.

But,and here's the important part, those viral particles, if whole initially, will be broken down by the digestive system and absorbed, in pieces, so as to be recognized by the immune system as inactive, but foreign and thus something for the immune system to act against.

In other words, a respiratory coronavirus will always give a person natural immunity - internally. Yes, they can still get symptoms, and whatever damage the virus does to their respiratory system, if any, will still occur; but death cannot occur because the immune system, if functional, will protect the body because the virus has already been recognized before entering the body.

However; if somehow the virus entered the body (your respiratory system is outside your body, else you would be exhaling blood and other bodily fluids instead of just the air you breath in) before your body recognized particles you digested, then you could be in danger from some coronaviruses, if they were dangerous at all.

My theory is that ventilators are what kill COVID-19 patients who are actually infected with and suffering from the infection from the virus. Ventilators both inflate the entire lung that is usually partially collapsed and thus immersed in fluid; as well as providing positive pressure inside the lungs which can physically force the virus and other contaminants into the body. Bypassing natural immunity is the ONLY way ANY respiratory virus can kill, period.

I was born a white Christian male landowner in the United States of America.

I am supposed to be privileged. The United States of America was supposedly founded by white Christian males who gave themselves and only themselves the right to vote and hold office.

So why is it that I am dirt poor, and disabled? Why am I 16 times more likely to be shot by cops than white males and thus over twice as likely to be shot by cops than black males? Why was I denied entry to Caltech and MIT when I applied despite qualifying and because of my race?

So why is it that a white Christian male landowner, supposedly the most privileged class of person in the United States of America, is so oppressed in a nation supposedly built for him, and especially in light of so much evidence of the privilege of being a white Christian male landowner?

The reason is simple: I do not think like I am supposed to think as determined by the people who took over America for themselves and their kind and who are best represented by corporations and the Democratic party and especially by the social network and other internet technology companies so keen to dictate what we can and cannot say.

Something to think about...

I will write more.

In case you feel like your fundamental rights as an American who provides for the basic needs of your fellow countrymen are being thrown out the window like so much dung, you're right.

The only way Democrats and their corporate puppetteers are ever going to laern not to fuck with real Americans is to show them exactly who real Americans are, and why they should be the only people to govern America.

A general strike by all providers of basic goods to corporations and replaced by direct sales to consumers and small businesses, as well as denial of all goods to states hostile to Americans including California, New York and others; would deprive precisely those people who are acting against America why you are so important, and why the founding fathers saw fit to ensure you had governance of America, as citizens of states joined together as a republic, not a democracy.

By depriving these people of their basic needs, and especially by cutting the supply to corporations, Americans can see just who America was made of, by, and for and that it was never "the people" but rather, those people who founded and maintain the nation.

Corporations were never supposed to exist as they do today. They were an emergency measure to allow business to be big enough to supply what the nation's entrepreneurs and small businesses could not, and only if their existence served the public good. America doesn't need corporations.

America doesn't need democracy either. It was founded as a representative republic to be run by those who founded it. While endowing the stakeholders with this privilege and responsibility is ideal, this manifest as white christian male landowners initially precisely because at the time, those were the people who were forging the nation and providing for everyone.

The easiest thing to do would be to repeal all amendments to the US Constitution which diluted the vote, as these efforts are what are wholly responsible for the horrible state of America today with its overly powerful federal government which benefits corporations over the people. Altering the Constitution to enshrine that stakeholders, that is, those who provide fo rthe basic needs of Americans, be given the privileges and responsibility of voting and governance. Stakeholders would generally include farmers, ranchers, small business related to basic needs (butchers for example), members of militia and others.

Wake America up. Show them who the stakeholders are, why, they are important, and why they were given the privilege and responsibility of voting and governing.