https://disperser.info/blog/index.php Copyright 2026, Michael Wolf (Michael Wolf) en-US SPHPBLOG 0.8.4 https://disperser.info/blog/index.php?entry=entry261012-090930
DO NOT TRUST ANY FORECAST that tells you where the storm will go. It is absolutely impossible to know with any certainty, as you can probably see by the NHC forecasts (if not, go there and look at the graphical archive). Anyone who says they know where this storm is going is someone whom you should not trust forecasts from.

The factors affecting the movement of Simon are highly complex and constantly changing and feeding back into themselves and each other. The added effects of Trudy make a highly complex situation absolutely impossible to understand. Therefore, it is not presently possible to know where Simon will go. We can only guess and prepare for the worst which is what forecasts should tell us.

It would appear that the worst case scenario is the absorption of Simon into Trudy and Trudy heading towards the Sea of Cortez or Baja peninsula. All interests in the Sea of Cortez should prepare for the worst and maintain a close watch on these two storms. I will do my best to keep this blog up to date.



Update 20:00PDT: Simon appears to have moved into the air mass that is now pushing Simon out to sea. Whether this remains the case is up in the air so to speak. This is a very difficult situation for forecasting where the storm will go. Do not assume the storm will not come your way.



Update 13 October 13:00PDT: Simon is stalled in the entrance to the Sea of Cortez and its literally anyone's guess as to where it will go. A combination of the air mass coming from the north pacific that was supposed to steer Simon north has diminished sooner than expected due to the hole left by Rachel. Simon is feeding back into its own tropical wave which now includes the seeds of Trudy, which is starting to head northwest.

Simon may move up the Sea of Cortez, but in conditions not suitable for strenghtening - too much sheer and too much cool surface air with not enough moisture. It is also entirely possible for Simon to head out to sea as it is to head up the sea. This is an unusual situation and relying on the NHC is obviously not an option this time around.

What you should be doing is preparing for this storm to affect you if you are on the Sea of Cortez. We are in Santa Rosalia and will be preparing for up to Category 1 conditions though I anticipate we won't be affected.

Monitor this blog. I will keep an eye on the storm and advise where possible. But remember, this is an unusual situation which could change and the storm could hit land anywhere in the Sea of Cortez within 24 hours!


........


Trudy doesn't yet exist but is likely to form and could enter the Sea of Cortez or affect Baja. I will monitor and report if so.

Simon is going left of forecast due to weakening of the air mass steering it. This also means the sheering is weakening and thus Simon will remain stronger than forecast by the NHC.

The air mass steering Simon north is weaker than forecast but still strong enough to keep Simon away from Baja, so far. However, it is going to the left of forecast and will likely head as far north so as to make landfall close to Topolobampo. Interests between Mazatlan and Guaymas should continue to monitor this storm.

These air masses are caused by interaction between tropical waves and the jetstreams. Tropical waves are larger this year, extending further north, and the jetstreams are fractured and have been moving and varying in intensity. This combination of factors affects the energy transfers which drive these air masses which steer these storms. Meteorologists (why are they called meteorologists if they don't study meteors?) are using past events to predict future events without sufficiently factoring for changing of the patterns of those events, and without consideration for the energy transfers which actually drive the weather. Simply considering the energy would allow for far more accuracy given how important it is, while reducing reliance on historic patterns and including room for changes in those patterns would not add quite as much it would also be significant in making forecasts far more accurate. But sadly, the NHC has a competence problem as well, which suggests that your best course of action is to learn how to predict weather yourself.

Simon retains the potential to cause devestation along the southern Sea of Cortez, including secondary damage caused by swell and winds and triggered thunderstorms in Baja California Sur and Sinaloa which of course will eventually receive Simon.

If Trudy forms, which seems likely, it is likely to head on a track south of Simon's then reverse course and likely towards the mainland south of Alcapulco if it remains organized that long. Waters have cooled significantly in the area and are becoming a major steering factor. Interests in Baja should also monitor this storm as it develops.]]> Tropical Weather https://disperser.info/blog/index.php?entry=entry261012-090930 (Michael Wolf) Mon, 12 Oct 2026 13:09:30 GMT https://disperser.info/blog/index.php?entry=entry261009-114907
Simon has entered an air mass with a higher degree of sheer which should weaken it as predicted, but don't count on it. If you are in the southern Sea of Cortez, keep an eye on this blog or at least keep an eye on the storm and do not assume you are safe from it. It's not over until it's over.



Update 11 Oct 9:30PDT: Rachel didn't go exactly where the NHC said it was going to go, and I have downloaded a couple of images to show why the NHC cannot be trusted for Baja tropical weather forecasting and why you must consult experts like me or do the forecasting yourselves.

Please click on these links to see two forecast updates from the NHC regarding Rachel, numbers 55 and 55a, three hours apart:

https://disperser.info/blog/images/Rachel55.png

https://disperser.info/blog/images/Rachel55a.png

Note the disparity in the location of the storm. 55a is correct but still shows the same forecast track.

This is because they are lazy and do not actually concern themselves with where the storm actually is. They simply run the models with the position forecast by the previous run. I have seen this time and time again, repeatedly on EVERY SINGLE FORECAST EVERY SINGLE YEAR SINCE 2014 when I started following the forecasts.

The NHC are incompetent. They are not meteorologists, they are permanent interns who run models for the lazy bosses who are too busy trading child porn and snorting cocaine do to their actual job that you and I and other American taxpayers pay them to do.

And now, Simon is going elsewhere after people in Acapulco were ready to receive the eye of a category 5 hurricane. No, that's not a bad thing. I believe the forecast should ALWAYS include EVERY POSSIBLE PATH a hurricane COULD take. But the NHC does not forecast that way, they forecast based on ego which wants to be right about what it wants to be right about, which is where the hurricane WILL go, not where it COULD GO and WHO it COULD AFFECT.

So, please keep a close eye on Simon if you are in the Sea of Cortez basin. It is not going to destroy Alcapulco and go safely inland. It is going to run along the coast, possibly up to Topolobampo, and it is going to destroy beaches and ports along the way as it maintains major hurricane status fed by 31-32degC waters.

The good news for everyone who won't be directly affected is that after Simon passes, we will all have much cooler weather.

Now, give the NHC a call and give them your two cents about paying better attention to their jobs.



Update 9 Oct 20:00PDT: Rachel is still headed further east than predicted and appears to be headed towards Bahia Los Angeles. Either way it does appear that there will be thunderstorms on the upper baja peninsula and that these will drive over the sea of Cortez and affect shelters such as Santa Rosalia and Bahia Los Angeles.

Simon appears to also be headed east of forecast but it is still too soon to tell.



Rachel has made its turn east and is heading due east, not northeast as the NHC has predicted. I do not yet see any elements which would cause steering to the north but I will keep an eye. Given the storm is headed due east in our direction, we are certainly keen to make sure where it is going.

Simon is strengthening and appears to be moving further west than the NHC predicted which is making a nightmare scenario more likely in which the storm heads up the Sea of Cortez. I will keep an eye on this storm as well. Meanwhile, preparation!

I will note that I tried writing a post explaining Sea of Cortez weather but it was deleted due to this blog logging me out while I was writing it. Frankly I don't care. I don't owe anyone anything and its actually quite the reverse. If you people want my advice either come get it personally as you help me with what I need help with in my disabled condition, or help me find help instead of continuing to censor me and keep me in your faces trying to find people who aren't sleeping AI powered zombies like all of you.]]> Tropical Weather https://disperser.info/blog/index.php?entry=entry261009-114907 (Michael Wolf) Fri, 09 Oct 2026 15:49:07 GMT https://disperser.info/blog/index.php?entry=entry261007-174030
Have fun.

If it looks like it will come up the Sea of Cortez and kill everyone I will be sure to tell you otherwise.
]]> Tropical Weather https://disperser.info/blog/index.php?entry=entry261007-174030 (Michael Wolf) Wed, 07 Oct 2026 21:40:30 GMT https://disperser.info/blog/index.php?entry=entry261002-154540
I am very curious about this system. I don't believe it can survive anywhere other than where it is because of the geography and nature of the system. It is behaving similar to polar storms found on distant planets and moons, in that it is producing geometric patterns, a triangle presently, square previously, and I initially saw a hexa- or octogon briefly.

If a tropical cyclone does develop inside of the circulation, I suspect that a secondary eyewall will exist briefly between this inner air mass and the outer one. I suspect that they will then merge and this will become an incredibly large and powerful hurricane that is most likely to travel up along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico (FUT) and across Florida and up the US east coast. But, this is unprecedented and is therefore impossible to predict with any hope of accuracy. This is best guess territory.

Interests in Mexico and the US gulf coast, the carribean, and the eastern US should keep an eye on this system, as should the NHC.



.......

A megacyclone has formed in the Gulf of Mexico nearest the Yucatan peninsula. It is rotating in the mexican waters of the gulf, the result of the low pressure system's normal rotation accelerated by surface conditions including a Gulf of Tehonapec wind event. The cyclone originated in the pacific and has moved into the Gulf of Mexico.

These are more mild events because of the sheer magnitude. The diameter of the rotation remains large because it is caused by the low pressure system of the tropical wave which hosts it. Just as the megacyclone before it, which was called a "noreaster" never achieved tropical storm status, this system is unlikely to achieve the winds associated with tropical storms, at least throughout the entire system. Rather, these are dangerous because they trigger storms on the margins of rotation, and these local thunderstorms are strong and unpredictable and often accompanied by signs of high energy storms including lightning, hail, waterspouts and even tornadoes.

Make no mistake, these are dangerous, they are large, and they are unpredictable by the NHC.

I will be studying this new phenomenon well as it is unprecendented and meteorologists are going to be incapable of understanding it precisely because it is novel.

For now, interests in Mexico and the US Southwest should keep and eye on this system as well as boaters in the Carribean.
]]> Tropical Weather https://disperser.info/blog/index.php?entry=entry261002-154540 (Michael Wolf) Fri, 02 Oct 2026 19:45:40 GMT https://disperser.info/blog/index.php?entry=entry260930-185523
I don't know why, but the NHC consistently gets the forecast wrong for the Sea of Cortez and Baja peninsula, as if they are deliberately trying to endanger people's lives. But the more likely explanation is that they are just so arrogant and insistent about being right that they jeopardize your lives in their effort to be seen as right. So your approval is more important than your safety. Which is precisely why I maintain this blog and correct the NHC's forecasts.

Right now, interests in Cabo and southern BCS need to keep an eye on this storm. It is not heading out to sea, and likely will not because steering forces from sea surface temperatures favor staying to the right or straight ahead, which puts it on course to make landfall around Cabo San Lucas.

I also wanted to comment on the operator of "Escape Velocity" who tried to MOTOR to Bahia Los Angeles instead of sailing, and forgot to make sure he had enough fuel. These are sailboats, and I called the guy an operator instead of a sailor or captain because he is neither. He is a fool who almost got himself killed and definitely got a LOT of people worried and spending money and time searching for him because he couldn't even setup solar panels to make sure he aways had power for the radio. If you happen to read this, you should have stayed where you are. What you did was a LOT riskier than waiting for a hurricane to cross a mountain range before heading to Guaymas.

Stop being fools.

As to Sea of Cortez weather, we are done with thunderstorms in the central sea of Cortez. Weather is still warm but far, far drier. I cannot say the same for up north where thunderstorms are still likely because there likely remains a lot of humidity up there. The southern sea is subject to tropical weather still and thus Thunderstorms are still possible from tropical storms or tropical waves.
]]> Tropical Weather https://disperser.info/blog/index.php?entry=entry260930-185523 (Michael Wolf) Wed, 30 Sep 2026 22:55:23 GMT https://disperser.info/blog/index.php?entry=entry260928-133227
The storm will reform and restrengthen before it heads to Guaymas.

Interestingly, I just looked at the NHC forecast. They made no note of the splitting of the eye, the weakening over land, nor the fact that the eye is reforming between Mulege and San Bruno and headed more to the right of their track, meaning Guaymas is likely to miss the eye. The NHC does a poor job of this because they are in Florida and they operate under ego, rather than intelligence. They are not trying to keep you safe, they are trying to be right. My efforts here add intelligence to their forecasts and challenges their ego-based methods with human-based intelligence.

Remember this when trusting AI.


02:30 Sep 28: Polo did not turn right, but the top of Polo did. The top of Polo went just north of Loreto, the bottom just north of Mulege. It is now reorganizing, with the remaining rotation reestablishing itself right as the eye touches the Sea of Cortez. We are in Santa Rosalia the eye is on the Sea of Cortez, and you cannot tell. There are no signs of a hurricane here.

However; the storm is reforming the Sea of Cortez is warmer than the Pacific, and despite the speed at which it is now moving, Polo will restrengthen and give Guaymas something to remember.

We are starting to see signs of a hurricane here, I guess. Its raining. No wind with it, and its light rain.

Polo should be giving us wind and waves soon, we shall see how much it reorganizes.



Update 22:00: Polo turned right, hard right, and appears to now be headed towards Loreto. In examining satellite imagery, it appears that the sea surface temperature in combination with the land caused Polo to steer to the right and sharply so. It remains to be seen if this momentum will continue, but it does appear like the storm is moving well to the right of the forecast track. Regardless, the turn was violent which will likely distort the eye and leave a residual wind field to the northwest of the storm, meaning places like Santa Rosalia could still see tropical storm force winds even if the storm passes just north of Loreto as it seems like it will.

The best news is that the strength of the system has diminished signficantly and it appears that it will no longer head to Guaymas. It will however wreak havoc on the aquaculture in southern Sonora and northern Jalisco.

This is of course preliminary and I will do my best to update this blog. However; I am quite tired and need sleep. If the storm does move south we will likely not experience anything more than we already have. Once again, for me, another hurricane Nothingburger.




...........


Update 19:30: Odalys is influencing Polo again, pulling it slightly left (as in closer to us) and also tearing it apart. Odalys is also reforming and may very well hit Baja, likely near La Paz.

It is very likely Polo will restrengthen and organize once it cosses the Baja peninsula and deliver a serious blow to Guaymas/Enpalme. They are already experiencing flooding from the rains. Worse is that the storm will be arriving at Guaymas during high tide, meaning flooding wil be rampant.

I have also seen that Mulege, nearly directly in the path of Polo, had a fire today, as if preparing for a hurricane wasn't enough work they literally had to put out fires too.

Also, a waterspout was spotted in Guaymas which confirms my earlier assessment that these small storms are becoming quite a danger to be considered.

Be safe out there.

..................


Odalys has stopped influencing Polo and it is steering to the right again, though I cannot yet tell how much. It looks like the eye will scrape Cabo San Lazaro and then cross into the Sea of Cortez around the southern tip of Bahia Conception, perhaps Santispac. Of course my hope is that it continues to turn right by way of the ridge which is driving the motion of the tropical storm it hosts.

Polo is weakening slightly and I believe has started eyewall replacement. The motion has accelerated and Polo is being stretched by this motion, a factor which plays heavy into how the winds manifest on the other side of the mountains. My guess is it will be gusty. We are in Santa Rosalia which is in close proximity to hills below the mountains. We can count on concentration of winds on the surface as they blow across the shore and along the hills, which will create buffeting and therefore gusty conditions.

I wanted to mention that Bahia Los Angeles, where many people including several from this marina went to seek shelter, is experiencing thunderstorms. The wiser choice would have been about 2/3rds of the way up.

Please do not mistake my abilities in this area. AI is programmed to make you believe it is human. I learned how to see the future so I can protect myself from it. It's not important that I am right or wrong about where the storm goes. It's important that you understand what is possible and that you should have your mind on preparedness.]]> Tropical Weather https://disperser.info/blog/index.php?entry=entry260928-133227 (Michael Wolf) Mon, 28 Sep 2026 17:32:27 GMT https://disperser.info/blog/index.php?entry=entry260927-060152
We will know more about where the hurricane will make landfall when it comes close to Cabo San Lazaro. Right now it is forecast to pass but it is steering closer now.

This is potentially good news for Guaymas.


Update 17:30:

Fuck you.

I helped everyone here at this marina and when we needed help there was none.

So, fuck you. You can figure out what the storm is doing yourselves. Until I am better treated, no more hurricane weather.


Update 06:47: Polo is still drifting to the left of forecast track and it is due to influence of Odalys. In sattelite imagery you can see the clouds of Odalys stripped away in the direction of Polo at the last moment. The question is, how much has Polo been affected and how much more will it.

This remains a dynamic situation. I will keep an eye on it. You should do the same.

.....


Polo has been drifting to the left, even of the NHC forecast due to slight interaction with Odalys. From what I can tell, the systems are not going to interact strongly and all that is going to happen is to bend Polo's track a little to the left. I cannot tell if the interaction is going to be strong.

Odalys has stopped its forward momentum and is diminishing, but significant momentum remains in updraft and suction. Polo has drifted to the left but its very hard to tell how much so relative to the forecast track because the forecast turn is also underway.

This is a very critical time for the storm and I probably will not get much sleep in the next 4 hours for my anxiety, as if Polo is drawn torwards Odalys, that puts its track closer to my location. At a minimum, this has brought the track closer to Mulege with the promise of horrific flooding of centro due to storm surge, high tide, and winds blowing onshore. If you are in Mulege, seek higher ground both from storm surge and flooding. This system will be bringing tons of rain. This assume the storm crosses south of Mulege. If it crosses north, they know what to expect from Jimena.

The problem is can Odalys pull Polo further left. I will keep a close on this and you will likely know before having read this. If it can pull it more than it is being steered to the right, it could take its track to Santa Rosalia or even further north, or even up to San Diego.

Keep a close eye on this system. It is not going to go where it was forecast and its landfall location is presently a dynamic situation due to the interaction with Odalys. Please do not assume you are safe from this hurricane where you are. Prepare for Category 3 conditions if you are on the Sea of Cortez from between La Paz and Loreto north. Those folks get to wait a week for their hurricane, Rachel.

Report for Jimena and Odile provided for research for those interested:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP132009_Jimena.pdf

Report for Odile: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP152014_Odile.pdf


Oh and PS, La Paz will get hit by a hurricane in just over a week from today. This will be the first time two hurricanes struck Baja in the same season I believe.
]]> Tropical Weather https://disperser.info/blog/index.php?entry=entry260927-060152 (Michael Wolf) Sun, 27 Sep 2026 10:01:52 GMT https://disperser.info/blog/index.php?entry=entry260926-124953
Odalys has not influenced Polo though I cannot say that Polo has not influenced Odalys. I will keep an eye on Odalys as well as the next system which is forming now.

Polo does appear to be on a trajectory to take it slightly to the right of the NHC forecast, which by my observations puts the eye just north of Loreto. But this is an estimate. Unfortunately where exactly it will go cannot be known for about 12-24 hours.

Keep an eye out and do not assume you are safe. Remember that the NHC forecasts for hurricanes that have hit Baja's populated areas were almost ALWAYS forecast to go safely to the left. There is also a great deal of uncertainty on this track because it curves.

.......

Odalys has begun to be influenced by Polo and appears to be defying the steering forces driving the predicted pathway. From what I see now, and this is VERY preliminary, it is entirely possible Odalys could also hit the Baja peninsula, and if so, it would be north somewhere between Bahia Los Angeles and San Felipe. Again, this is preliminary and I note it because people are sheltering from Polo there and we are considering sailing north into the open sea to avoid the winds. If you have done so please keep an eye on things over the next 12 hours or so.

Polo does seem to be following the forecast track though just a hair to the right. Interaction with Odalys will change this, though only slightly given Polo is presently much stronger and is under less sheering forces.

The entire Sea of Cortez remains under threat, not only from this storm, but from the one developing off the Gulf of Tehonopec. This one could also affect the Baja peninsula and I will be watching it.

Be aware of the wind directions expected from the hurricane(s) and plan for the directions they will come from. If you find yourself in the path, remember that the most dangerous thing about a hurricane is the eyewall. As I like to tell it, a hurricane is like holding your hand out the window as you accelerate to say 130mph. As you hold your hand, it gets harder to do but you can still hold it there, especially if you turn it flat to the wind. But now imagine driving 130mph and sticking your hand out the window as fast as you can. You would LOSE YOUR ARM! That's because the forces are violent. Slowly built up forces allow for natural flexibility of all materials, but a sudden force does not allow time for that give and things break. A mast could withstand 130mph winds, but NOT a sudden gust of 130mph.

Cyclones in the northern hemisphere rotate counter-clockwise. The winds are therefore easy to predict relative to where the storm goes. In this case, for places north of the storm, as it crosses baja, the winds will start from the northwest, then quickly strengthen and move to the north and northwest, where they will be strongest and remain so until the eye crosses into the Sea of Cortez. After it passes, winds will shift to the east and eventually southeast then finally towards the storm.

Good luck out there.]]> Tropical Weather https://disperser.info/blog/index.php?entry=entry260926-124953 (Michael Wolf) Sat, 26 Sep 2026 16:49:53 GMT https://disperser.info/blog/index.php?entry=entry260925-182528
So the good news is, no thunderstorms for those north of where the hurricane's direct effecs cross the peninsula.

As of now, Polo is steering to the right of NHC forecasts, which for the moment suggests crossing around Loreto to Huatabampo. If the ridge continues to weaken Polo could cross further south. Right now, Puerto San Carlos is in the crosshairs for potentially a Category 4 hurricane, an unprecedented event that is likely to destroy the port if the eye passes over, especially given the geography of the port.

But, despite being north of even the present forecast path, we are still making preparations for worst case scenario. You should do the same. Regardless of where the storm hits, thunderstorms, which are often more dangerous, are likely to form. Also, storm surge is a consideration. We are concerned about this actually because the moon is full now, and if the storm surge is large enough on the sea and coincides with a high tide, the dock we are on could actually lift off the posts if waves also came though. Don't overlook this or wind which will be consistently intense with strong gusts for hours. Flash flooding, tornadoes, waterspouts, landslides and all associated phenomenon must not be overlooked.

It is always better to be over prepared than surprised.

]]> Tropical Weather https://disperser.info/blog/index.php?entry=entry260925-182528 (Michael Wolf) Fri, 25 Sep 2026 22:25:28 GMT https://disperser.info/blog/index.php?entry=entry260924-162436
It does appear that the ridge presently steering Polo away from Baja is weakening already.

I will be attempting to determine if there will be an interaction between the storms and what could happen if so. At the moment it does not appear certain that they will get much closer.

As a result, the entire Sea of Cortez is potentially under direct or indirect threat from Polo or the thunderstorms it and Odalys could trigger.

The good news is, the energy to form thunderstorms has abated for now.


......

Update: 24 Sep 17:30: Polo has started to head west finally, later than predicted by the NHC, but possibly more to the right than predicted. However; Odalys has strengthened as is looking to head very close to Polo and cause unpredictable changes in the trajectory of Polo, which will be the dominant force in the interaction with Odalys.

Once this interaction occurs we will know more about where the storm will go. Until then, it is all wishfull thinking.



......

I am writing a new post once again for clarification and to reduce clutter with regards to the tropical weather associated with hurricanes Polo and Odalys as well as general weather on the Sea of Cortez.

First of all, Polo is tracking to the right of where the NHC says it will go, as usual. They even say they are biasing their guidance to the right from what all of their models but one or two say, models that are consistently more right when it comes to storms that spawn this time of year and head to Baja. But that model is more correct, and it shows, as I wrote below in the previous post, that as of right now, Polo seems likely to make landfall around Cabo, travel up through La Paz, and head across to Topolobampo.

On a personal note, if this is the case, it is decent revenge for what those places have done to me. Cabo is what it is but they participate in what La Paz does and refused to service our boat. La Paz took everything from me, and the guy who killed my friend runs Marina Palmira in Topolobampo. I will CELEBRATE if the hurricane takes that path.

As of now, the energies I talk about in the discussion below are being drained from the lower sea of cortez, meaning that where are and south to where the hurricane directly affects are done with thunderstorms for the year. But, Polo is getting big and if it does go north of La Paz it will slam everyone up and down the Sea of Cortez regardless of whether the hurricane directly affects them or not.

We still don't know enough to say anyone is out of danger yet, but we do know that interests on the peninsula need to brace for the strongest hurricane to ever affect Baja California Sur in history!]]> Tropical Weather https://disperser.info/blog/index.php?entry=entry260924-162436 (Michael Wolf) Thu, 24 Sep 2026 20:24:36 GMT