Olaf came.

The NHC should be sued out of existence for their negligence in forecasting, including again using the output of the model instead of the actual location of the storm.

It's odd to me, because twice now, the NHC has botched forecasts in a way specifically harmful to BCS, as if the NHC has taken revenge against me by endangering everyone here. It wouldn't surprise me, given the US State Department got my disability cut off by not transmitting communications between SSA and myself as they are obligated to do.

Anyway, my ship has drug, significantly, and I've lost one of my boats, it drug right off the anchor and is likely either anchored somewhere dozens of miles away, or washed up or sunk somewhere. It is a complete loss, no doubt. I have a sea anchor set up in case I lose both anchors or drag out of reach of my anchor line. At least my engine runs.

The only good news for me is that I moved to the abandoned boatyard I am seizing in the name of the federal government. At least I have a place to put things to dry and to live if this boat doesn't survive and I do.

Olaf's center of circulation at the lower level is moving westward more than the NHC's models are showing, due I believe to following the SSTs which show a westward contour at the location of the center.

However; the top of the center of circulation is moving eastward relative to the bottom, showing an increase in sheer.

These conditions are sure to change, as the contour doesn't go far before the system has a chance to go any direction for SSTs. The sheer should also diminish some and allow for strengthening.

I am of the belief this system will affect La Paz, and that it could affect La Paz directly as a Category 3 hurricane.

I will be keeping a close eye on this system. Do not put your faith in the NHC's forecast. I would not put it past them to endanger everyone in La Paz for the sake of trying to do so to me. The US State Department, after all, deliberately failed to submit documents for my disability and got them cut, I didn't even know until they stopped being deposited because the US State Department was supposed to send me any mail as they knew I have no way to receive mail here in Mexico.

I now have direct evidence of harassment of an American citizen seeking refuge in Mexico by the US Government, a clear violation of International Law and my rights. And given I have nearly every year embarrassed them with their wildly inaccurate and useless forecasts, they simply cannot be trusted when it comes down to it.

In case you need a reminder, the present forecast is nearly identical to the predicted path of Nora, which instead of going west of La Paz, was just west of the MAINLAND.

I have examined the air mass movements which appear to me would affect what will eventually be called Olaf's movement. SSTs are the primary driving factor for the development of a tropical system and thus a tropical system can only develop if it remains over warm enough waters, so it will tend to follow those waters. Upper level and lower level atmospheric affects will also affect steering.

In the case of Olaf, we again have two choices, westward or northward, two directions the SSTs are warm enough for continued development. The air masses appear to be moving in such a way as to steer Olaf slightly west of north at the moment, which also explains why the sytstem is still elongated along that axis as the system is still connected to the parent tropical wave.

Conditions appear to be conducive for continued and even rapid development of this system. A persistent high remains over southern Baja but that may not be enough to keep tropical cyclones from affecting La Paz directly or indirectly.

I am keeping an eye on the system because I believe it is not more likely than not that it could affect La Paz, and likely within a week.

What is expected to develop into tropical storm Olaf is presently under initial development directly south of Baja just off the mainland south of Puerta Vallarta. The system is expected to build and form a tropical storm soon, likely within 24 hours. The system could come to La Paz given present conditions, but I do not know yet.

Expect the possibility of up to a Category 3 hurricane could come to La Paz in the next week or two. The longer it takes for the storm to come here, the bigger it will be.

I will be monitoring this storm carefully and updating my forecast accordingly.

Despite what the NHC and others may say, Nora persists as remnants. The center of circulation has elongated so much that it presents in satellite, which you can see in the link below. If you change to 20 images you will see the circulation extends from the mainland shoreline4 from Mazatlan to about Guymas but remains extremely narrow.

This is important because Mazatlan and Sonora are bot experiencing tropical weather, monsoon-like thunderstorms but outside monsoon conditions because the tropical system as brought those conditions with it. The circulation, even if only half, causes air to rise as it rotates. This creates low pressure which causes moist humid air to rise in the same way monsoon storms start. These are unusual conditions and should have remained forecast in my opinion.

I have always noticed I was different from most people around me. What I noticed is that I tended to act upon impulses that emanated from within others. For example, I was always called a 'cry baby' as a child because I tended to feel the sadness others felt and expressed it, even if it was dramatized, such as on television.

Relatively late in my life, I realized I was highly empathetic, especially compared to my family. What I didn't realize, was the precise nature of the connection between the two.

Empathy allows us to feel what others feel, but it's not just limited to that, this is what I now understand. Empathy causes us to act on those feelings, as if they were our own. Empathy compels us to act when others suffer for example. This actually creates a deep connection between those with empathy and those around them. A person with a high degree of empathy is the most likely to take charge of an emergency situation in order to ensure everyone's safety, because the person with empathy won't be able to help but feel the anxiety of everyone around him.

But, this is a serious disadvantage in society, especially when those feelings can be faked. People who are not compelled to act on the feelings of others have a serious advantage in being able to control the behavior of those with empathy, allowing them to take financial or even physical or sexual advantage of them. Most victims of sexual abuse are highly empathetic whereas most perpetrators are psychopaths, people with no empathy whatsoever. I actually didn't realize how many times I was sexually abused as a child and still do not know the extent of the abuse from when I was a toddler.

People without empathy see people with empathy as weak. But, this is only in the context of a society where empathy is a handicap. The truth is, empathy is powerful and highly empathetic people also tend to be geniuses. Sadly, these people are wholly incompatible with society, and thus their talents are never contributed and thus society becomes less and less empathetic (especially with drugs that reduce it, such as acetaminophen (Tylenol)).

But, outside of society, in the context of, say, life at sea; empathy is highly valuable because it makes communication quite simple and extremely efficient. It also makes life much more pleasant because everyone in the ship, if they are all highly empathetic, will always be able to trust one another. And that level of trust makes for a potent weapon in times of conflict, which appear to be on the horizon.

Yes, being highly empathetic was a serious disadvantage to me while I was in society, but in spite of that, I made great strides and achieved what few people do who lack the disadvantage I had. But, now that I am outside society, and now that society has begun to finally collapse (sorry if you weren't aware or don't believe, but it is what it is whether you believe it or not), my being highly empathetic becomes a significant advantage.

If you need a metaphor: I have become like a wolf, and will have a pack. You remain in a herd, and you only have protection in numbers. Unless of course that herd has been made sick by some kind of fake pandemic, in which case the herd will collapse.

The US Government, specifically the Department of Homeland Security, according to the NYPD per the Stanislaus County Sheriffs, lists me on the TECS terrorist watchlist.

I am also apparently called a terrorist by the conglomerate of Big Tech that runs a website which hosts this list.

So, what is a terrorist?

Who am I allegedly terrorizing?

Am I really a terrorist?



A terrorist is someone that a government or other controlling entity says acts to strike fear for political means. Really, a "terrorist" is just people trying to do what they can against the oppressive government which has wronged them in some way. So, "terrorists" then are enemies of the state.

Who am I supposedly terrorizing? Well, they say I am terrorizing you. That's kind of hard to do behind a keyboard on a boat in Mexico, wouldn't you agree? You are part of the process, but not the victims. You are the audience, the ones the government wants to fear. Why? Because the government and other controlling entities (corporations, military industrial complex, deep state, you name it...) are afraid of me, and they are afraid of me because i might make you aware enough that they are afraid of you as well. And a government without a mandate from the people cannot survive if they are afraid of the people.

So, am I a terrorist? From your perspective, certainly not. Otherwise, I'd be, you know, killing people or something. But, from the perspective of those who maintain those lists, yes, absolutely I am a terrorist. But, I can't help it. It's in my nature, which is actually human nature, and which makes perfect sense when you realize that those who maintain those lists are not actually human...

Nora continues to hug the coast, the eye now fully on shore and elongated and obviously in the process of disintegrating.

We are currently receiving winds that represent entrainment into the storm, that storm is a low, it draws air from high pressure areas around it. Our barometric pressure is decreasing as a result, falling from a high actually above where it was before the tropical wave even came here some time last night.

I do not expect storms, only continuing wind which will waver between stronger and weaker as the storms play out on the sea.

As for me, I am quite exhausted. I had just finished pulling out nearly all of my hernias when I pulled the biggest back through loading a simple propane bottle. The good news is, I figured out how I did it, precisely how I do it when I pull chain by hand. So I have to be extremely careful doing anything that is anything like pulling chain. Hard to do at anchor.


Enjoy the day. It's quite warm of course, the desert heat is blowing across the peninsula instead of being drawn up into local storms. We won't see monsoons for at least a few days.


Word of warning: The next tropical system will not miss La Paz. If conditions are right for the worst case scenario, it can still occur, with the system tracking up the west side of the Sea of Cortez or the Pacific coast of the peninsula where the SSTs remain high having not been reduced by the storm; or across the peninsula itself of course.

The next storm is called Olaf by the way.



Final word. I am not ignorant of New Orleans. I don't have the energy to concern myself, but my heart goes out to the city which I am certain will never be rebuilt. It is a city my family is connected to in a small way, but a city I have never visited. I have been following the storm because its fate is connected to Nora's. I have watched and saw the storm was going to hit the city several hours ago. It breaks my heart to see it happen. It is a place that will be erased from the map by the time you have read this post. RIP New Orleans.

It occurred to me that people might not realize that I only write what I understand to be true, and that what I understand to be true is true, which translates to a pretty damn good chance that I am in fact correct in what I write here.

Afghanistan, for example (the previous entry), was a field for testing military gear, just as Vietnam was. I don't have to explain this or sell you the idea that it is a fact. I state this because it is an accepted fact that there is a Military Industrial Complex, and if you aren't aware of this fact, you aren't intelligent enough to be reading my blog. I say this because only intelligent enough people can read properly, that is, critically. Only intelligent enough people can read my writing and not take it for granted. The rest of you are so stupid as to not be able to question what I write. Stupid, by the way, is just lack of intelligence, failure to meet your potential in intelligence. You are as stupid as you are not intelligent.

So if you feel like you aren't getting an explanation and have to just believe me, don't feel bad. Yes, you are stupid. But you are among friends. Everyone in society is stupid. That just means you were never allowed to achieve your potential, whereas I was driven to it by society because I was socially rejected as a child.

You can also be confident you can believe what I write because I have a Universal perspective, which means I'm not trying to be right from anyone's perspective, I'm trying to be right from EVERYONE'S perspective. I don't have an ego that needs to be satisfied, meaning I do not have any inherent biases, nothing to cause me to have anything but a universal perspective.

And there's also the fact that I cannot lie because of the memory problems I have from the brain damage I suffered.

Taken together, they represent a guarantee that you are reading fact when you read something I write.

Nora is still plying its way along the coast, following the path forecast by the NHC for almost 24 hours so far.

The storm is creating some big storms which present big enough to have me suggest that we could see big storms here in La Paz today. At the very least, we will get clouds and humidity from the storm today.

Afghanistan was a field, as in for field testing weapons and other articles of war and other mayhem. Afghanistan was a field for the so-called Military Industrial Complex.

So, why would anyone ever think that the biggest money making and spending machine on the planet would be so careless as to create the mess created at Kabul airport?

Why wasn't Bagram used instead? An isolated and well protected American base where people could be brought safely and allowed to fly out without threats of suicide bombing or other safety issues.

The reason is simple. Things went exactly as planned. Fuck the people, get the gear out. Oh, the people paid for it? Leave it behind.

Don't ever try to think of these things from your own point of view. Their point of view is profit over all else, including your life. In that context, who cares what happens in Kabul, right? The field has been shut down, we got our guys and toys out. Oh, suicide bombers in Kabul? We'll tell you where the guys who are going to do it...maybe afterwards.


And remember, that's why you pay income tax and work 40 hours a week.

We missed this one. The eye has moved ashore and will be moving even more eastward than the last NHC forecast I looked at, which showed the eye hugging the coast pretty much to San Carlos. It won't even make Mazatlan.

From the perspective of La Paz, there is no threat from Nora. However; Nora's system, the underlying tropical wave, has reduced our pressure sufficient to mean monsoonal thunderstorms (what we have been having, including those fun downdrafts/cloudbursts) will be on the menu, probably large and probably won't miss La Paz.

Enjoy your thunderstorm and be sure to prepare for flash floods.

Nora is going to Mazatlan instead of La Paz.



By the way, I will always stand by my criticism of the NHC. I posted in a prior entry a link and commentary stating that what they wrote was basically "we don't know" in jargon to make themselves look good. I said in my forecasts that I didn't know what was going to happen. That's honesty. I do not have access to the data that the NHC has. I don't have to. I have an understanding, a dynamic model in my mind of how these things work, always improving because I'm always honest with myself and in my forecasts. That kind of self objectivity is vital to learning how to forecast tropical weather, which is of course important to me because my life very much depends on it.

The NHC cannot tell you they don't know what is going to happen. That is because their forecast methodology is to report what they interpret their models as predicting what the storm will do. That is not a wise methodology because the reason we seek forecasts is to know what COULD happen so that we can be prepared. A good forecast tells us if the storm could affect us and what the quality of the data is to tell us, or an interpretation of the quality of the data such as a percentage chance. We need to know what could happen, and what level of confidence there is in the prediction. This guides our decisions in how to prepare for a storm. And that's the whole point of looking at tropical weather forecasts and why I'm sure you who have followed this forecast prefer my forecast to theirs. I tell you what you need to know because I find out what I need to know. I just report what I find and give you as much background data and interpretation as possible.

This is a link to the graphical forecast archive. Play and watch the animation. You will see what "we don't know what is going to happen" looks like, and precisely why I do not like their forecast methodology.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2021/NORA_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_no_line

Nora seems to be on course to miss La Paz completely.

I will update this forecast if that changes.

Expect some warm humid weather tomorrow with the likelihood of broad thunderstorms with possible local gale force winds.

Enjoy your weekend. I know I am now.

I have had a good look at the satellite as well as today's weather fax and have a better idea of what's going on now, although it is absolutely a deciding moment for us here in La Paz as to whether or not this storm is going to affect us.

I see the system, which now extends all the way up the peninsula/Sea of Cortez, has begun rotating counterclockwise, with the center moving approximately northeast. This has affected Nora by steering it more east than the NHC has been forecasting, and as I forecast last update, tempered with my concern it could keep rotating and move back towards La Paz. My observations now demonstrate the Nora is actually beginning to interact with IDA's outflows, meaning the directions of the systems are starting to align, which of course means Nora is steering east, and thus away from La Paz.

What is also hopeful (from the perspective of not getting slammed by this storm) is that most of the storm's energies are being expressed in everwhere but the quadrant facing La Paz, meaning that if the storm continues this presentation, it is unlikely to even affect La Paz.

I am of course keeping a close eye and will studying satellite imagery intensely over the next two hours.

I should know by tonight if Nora is going to hit La Paz.

The NHC forecast linked below is in error and shows the storm traveling past La Paz to the east. This is no longer the case. It appears that Ida is actually steering the system (Nora as well as the underlying tropical wave are still a single system.) Ida is of course moving generally north, which equates to influence in steering Nora also moving north.

It is my opinion that the storm will continue to track east, towards the mainland, but that it will steer towards La Paz, possibly at the last minute, leaving La Paz once again unprepared for a major storm.

Do not be fooled by the NHC forecast. They are only concerned with being right at the expense of people's lives. Their methodology for forecasting is flawed as it does not consider what people need, and that is to know whether or not to prepare for a hurricane. We don't want to know what is going to happen, we need to know what could, and for that, the NHC forecast methodology is completely flawed.

I cannot say for certain what this storm is going to do. But I am here to tell you that it CAN be as bad as a Category 3 or even higher hurricane that could come directly over La Paz. Please prepare accordingly.