Olaf - Initial Forecast 
Monday, September 6, 2021, 08:45 PM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator
What is expected to develop into tropical storm Olaf is presently under initial development directly south of Baja just off the mainland south of Puerta Vallarta. The system is expected to build and form a tropical storm soon, likely within 24 hours. The system could come to La Paz given present conditions, but I do not know yet.

Expect the possibility of up to a Category 3 hurricane could come to La Paz in the next week or two. The longer it takes for the storm to come here, the bigger it will be.

I will be monitoring this storm carefully and updating my forecast accordingly.
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Nora Update 
Tuesday, August 31, 2021, 08:19 AM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator

Despite what the NHC and others may say, Nora persists as remnants. The center of circulation has elongated so much that it presents in satellite, which you can see in the link below. If you change to 20 images you will see the circulation extends from the mainland shoreline4 from Mazatlan to about Guymas but remains extremely narrow.

This is important because Mazatlan and Sonora are bot experiencing tropical weather, monsoon-like thunderstorms but outside monsoon conditions because the tropical system as brought those conditions with it. The circulation, even if only half, causes air to rise as it rotates. This creates low pressure which causes moist humid air to rise in the same way monsoon storms start. These are unusual conditions and should have remained forecast in my opinion.


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Empathy 
Tuesday, August 31, 2021, 12:07 AM
Posted by Administrator

I have always noticed I was different from most people around me. What I noticed is that I tended to act upon impulses that emanated from within others. For example, I was always called a 'cry baby' as a child because I tended to feel the sadness others felt and expressed it, even if it was dramatized, such as on television.

Relatively late in my life, I realized I was highly empathetic, especially compared to my family. What I didn't realize, was the precise nature of the connection between the two.

Empathy allows us to feel what others feel, but it's not just limited to that, this is what I now understand. Empathy causes us to act on those feelings, as if they were our own. Empathy compels us to act when others suffer for example. This actually creates a deep connection between those with empathy and those around them. A person with a high degree of empathy is the most likely to take charge of an emergency situation in order to ensure everyone's safety, because the person with empathy won't be able to help but feel the anxiety of everyone around him.

But, this is a serious disadvantage in society, especially when those feelings can be faked. People who are not compelled to act on the feelings of others have a serious advantage in being able to control the behavior of those with empathy, allowing them to take financial or even physical or sexual advantage of them. Most victims of sexual abuse are highly empathetic whereas most perpetrators are psychopaths, people with no empathy whatsoever. I actually didn't realize how many times I was sexually abused as a child and still do not know the extent of the abuse from when I was a toddler.

People without empathy see people with empathy as weak. But, this is only in the context of a society where empathy is a handicap. The truth is, empathy is powerful and highly empathetic people also tend to be geniuses. Sadly, these people are wholly incompatible with society, and thus their talents are never contributed and thus society becomes less and less empathetic (especially with drugs that reduce it, such as acetaminophen (Tylenol)).

But, outside of society, in the context of, say, life at sea; empathy is highly valuable because it makes communication quite simple and extremely efficient. It also makes life much more pleasant because everyone in the ship, if they are all highly empathetic, will always be able to trust one another. And that level of trust makes for a potent weapon in times of conflict, which appear to be on the horizon.

Yes, being highly empathetic was a serious disadvantage to me while I was in society, but in spite of that, I made great strides and achieved what few people do who lack the disadvantage I had. But, now that I am outside society, and now that society has begun to finally collapse (sorry if you weren't aware or don't believe, but it is what it is whether you believe it or not), my being highly empathetic becomes a significant advantage.

If you need a metaphor: I have become like a wolf, and will have a pack. You remain in a herd, and you only have protection in numbers. Unless of course that herd has been made sick by some kind of fake pandemic, in which case the herd will collapse.
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I AM A Terrorist! 
Monday, August 30, 2021, 11:42 PM
Posted by Administrator
The US Government, specifically the Department of Homeland Security, according to the NYPD per the Stanislaus County Sheriffs, lists me on the TECS terrorist watchlist.

I am also apparently called a terrorist by the conglomerate of Big Tech that runs a website which hosts this list.

So, what is a terrorist?

Who am I allegedly terrorizing?

Am I really a terrorist?



A terrorist is someone that a government or other controlling entity says acts to strike fear for political means. Really, a "terrorist" is just people trying to do what they can against the oppressive government which has wronged them in some way. So, "terrorists" then are enemies of the state.

Who am I supposedly terrorizing? Well, they say I am terrorizing you. That's kind of hard to do behind a keyboard on a boat in Mexico, wouldn't you agree? You are part of the process, but not the victims. You are the audience, the ones the government wants to fear. Why? Because the government and other controlling entities (corporations, military industrial complex, deep state, you name it...) are afraid of me, and they are afraid of me because i might make you aware enough that they are afraid of you as well. And a government without a mandate from the people cannot survive if they are afraid of the people.

So, am I a terrorist? From your perspective, certainly not. Otherwise, I'd be, you know, killing people or something. But, from the perspective of those who maintain those lists, yes, absolutely I am a terrorist. But, I can't help it. It's in my nature, which is actually human nature, and which makes perfect sense when you realize that those who maintain those lists are not actually human...
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Nora Update 
Sunday, August 29, 2021, 09:20 PM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator
Nora continues to hug the coast, the eye now fully on shore and elongated and obviously in the process of disintegrating.

We are currently receiving winds that represent entrainment into the storm, that storm is a low, it draws air from high pressure areas around it. Our barometric pressure is decreasing as a result, falling from a high actually above where it was before the tropical wave even came here some time last night.

I do not expect storms, only continuing wind which will waver between stronger and weaker as the storms play out on the sea.

As for me, I am quite exhausted. I had just finished pulling out nearly all of my hernias when I pulled the biggest back through loading a simple propane bottle. The good news is, I figured out how I did it, precisely how I do it when I pull chain by hand. So I have to be extremely careful doing anything that is anything like pulling chain. Hard to do at anchor.


Enjoy the day. It's quite warm of course, the desert heat is blowing across the peninsula instead of being drawn up into local storms. We won't see monsoons for at least a few days.


Word of warning: The next tropical system will not miss La Paz. If conditions are right for the worst case scenario, it can still occur, with the system tracking up the west side of the Sea of Cortez or the Pacific coast of the peninsula where the SSTs remain high having not been reduced by the storm; or across the peninsula itself of course.

The next storm is called Olaf by the way.



Final word. I am not ignorant of New Orleans. I don't have the energy to concern myself, but my heart goes out to the city which I am certain will never be rebuilt. It is a city my family is connected to in a small way, but a city I have never visited. I have been following the storm because its fate is connected to Nora's. I have watched and saw the storm was going to hit the city several hours ago. It breaks my heart to see it happen. It is a place that will be erased from the map by the time you have read this post. RIP New Orleans.

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Why You Should Believe Me 
Sunday, August 29, 2021, 09:30 AM
Posted by Administrator
It occurred to me that people might not realize that I only write what I understand to be true, and that what I understand to be true is true, which translates to a pretty damn good chance that I am in fact correct in what I write here.

Afghanistan, for example (the previous entry), was a field for testing military gear, just as Vietnam was. I don't have to explain this or sell you the idea that it is a fact. I state this because it is an accepted fact that there is a Military Industrial Complex, and if you aren't aware of this fact, you aren't intelligent enough to be reading my blog. I say this because only intelligent enough people can read properly, that is, critically. Only intelligent enough people can read my writing and not take it for granted. The rest of you are so stupid as to not be able to question what I write. Stupid, by the way, is just lack of intelligence, failure to meet your potential in intelligence. You are as stupid as you are not intelligent.

So if you feel like you aren't getting an explanation and have to just believe me, don't feel bad. Yes, you are stupid. But you are among friends. Everyone in society is stupid. That just means you were never allowed to achieve your potential, whereas I was driven to it by society because I was socially rejected as a child.

You can also be confident you can believe what I write because I have a Universal perspective, which means I'm not trying to be right from anyone's perspective, I'm trying to be right from EVERYONE'S perspective. I don't have an ego that needs to be satisfied, meaning I do not have any inherent biases, nothing to cause me to have anything but a universal perspective.

And there's also the fact that I cannot lie because of the memory problems I have from the brain damage I suffered.

Taken together, they represent a guarantee that you are reading fact when you read something I write.


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Nora Update 
Sunday, August 29, 2021, 09:17 AM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator
Nora is still plying its way along the coast, following the path forecast by the NHC for almost 24 hours so far.

The storm is creating some big storms which present big enough to have me suggest that we could see big storms here in La Paz today. At the very least, we will get clouds and humidity from the storm today.
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The Afghanistan "Debacle" Was No Such Thing 
Sunday, August 29, 2021, 04:49 AM
Posted by Administrator
Afghanistan was a field, as in for field testing weapons and other articles of war and other mayhem. Afghanistan was a field for the so-called Military Industrial Complex.

So, why would anyone ever think that the biggest money making and spending machine on the planet would be so careless as to create the mess created at Kabul airport?

Why wasn't Bagram used instead? An isolated and well protected American base where people could be brought safely and allowed to fly out without threats of suicide bombing or other safety issues.

The reason is simple. Things went exactly as planned. Fuck the people, get the gear out. Oh, the people paid for it? Leave it behind.

Don't ever try to think of these things from your own point of view. Their point of view is profit over all else, including your life. In that context, who cares what happens in Kabul, right? The field has been shut down, we got our guys and toys out. Oh, suicide bombers in Kabul? We'll tell you where the guys who are going to do it...maybe afterwards.


And remember, that's why you pay income tax and work 40 hours a week.
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Nora IS a Miss, Will Not Directly Affect La Paz 
Sunday, August 29, 2021, 04:21 AM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator
We missed this one. The eye has moved ashore and will be moving even more eastward than the last NHC forecast I looked at, which showed the eye hugging the coast pretty much to San Carlos. It won't even make Mazatlan.

From the perspective of La Paz, there is no threat from Nora. However; Nora's system, the underlying tropical wave, has reduced our pressure sufficient to mean monsoonal thunderstorms (what we have been having, including those fun downdrafts/cloudbursts) will be on the menu, probably large and probably won't miss La Paz.

Enjoy your thunderstorm and be sure to prepare for flash floods.

Nora is going to Mazatlan instead of La Paz.



By the way, I will always stand by my criticism of the NHC. I posted in a prior entry a link and commentary stating that what they wrote was basically "we don't know" in jargon to make themselves look good. I said in my forecasts that I didn't know what was going to happen. That's honesty. I do not have access to the data that the NHC has. I don't have to. I have an understanding, a dynamic model in my mind of how these things work, always improving because I'm always honest with myself and in my forecasts. That kind of self objectivity is vital to learning how to forecast tropical weather, which is of course important to me because my life very much depends on it.

The NHC cannot tell you they don't know what is going to happen. That is because their forecast methodology is to report what they interpret their models as predicting what the storm will do. That is not a wise methodology because the reason we seek forecasts is to know what COULD happen so that we can be prepared. A good forecast tells us if the storm could affect us and what the quality of the data is to tell us, or an interpretation of the quality of the data such as a percentage chance. We need to know what could happen, and what level of confidence there is in the prediction. This guides our decisions in how to prepare for a storm. And that's the whole point of looking at tropical weather forecasts and why I'm sure you who have followed this forecast prefer my forecast to theirs. I tell you what you need to know because I find out what I need to know. I just report what I find and give you as much background data and interpretation as possible.

This is a link to the graphical forecast archive. Play and watch the animation. You will see what "we don't know what is going to happen" looks like, and precisely why I do not like their forecast methodology.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2021/NORA_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_no_line
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Nora - It's a Miss...? 
Sunday, August 29, 2021, 12:52 AM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator
Nora seems to be on course to miss La Paz completely.

I will update this forecast if that changes.

Expect some warm humid weather tomorrow with the likelihood of broad thunderstorms with possible local gale force winds.

Enjoy your weekend. I know I am now.
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Nora Update - Good News? 
Saturday, August 28, 2021, 08:43 PM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator
I have had a good look at the satellite as well as today's weather fax and have a better idea of what's going on now, although it is absolutely a deciding moment for us here in La Paz as to whether or not this storm is going to affect us.

I see the system, which now extends all the way up the peninsula/Sea of Cortez, has begun rotating counterclockwise, with the center moving approximately northeast. This has affected Nora by steering it more east than the NHC has been forecasting, and as I forecast last update, tempered with my concern it could keep rotating and move back towards La Paz. My observations now demonstrate the Nora is actually beginning to interact with IDA's outflows, meaning the directions of the systems are starting to align, which of course means Nora is steering east, and thus away from La Paz.

What is also hopeful (from the perspective of not getting slammed by this storm) is that most of the storm's energies are being expressed in everwhere but the quadrant facing La Paz, meaning that if the storm continues this presentation, it is unlikely to even affect La Paz.

I am of course keeping a close eye and will studying satellite imagery intensely over the next two hours.

I should know by tonight if Nora is going to hit La Paz.
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Nora Update 
Saturday, August 28, 2021, 02:51 PM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator
The NHC forecast linked below is in error and shows the storm traveling past La Paz to the east. This is no longer the case. It appears that Ida is actually steering the system (Nora as well as the underlying tropical wave are still a single system.) Ida is of course moving generally north, which equates to influence in steering Nora also moving north.

It is my opinion that the storm will continue to track east, towards the mainland, but that it will steer towards La Paz, possibly at the last minute, leaving La Paz once again unprepared for a major storm.

Do not be fooled by the NHC forecast. They are only concerned with being right at the expense of people's lives. Their methodology for forecasting is flawed as it does not consider what people need, and that is to know whether or not to prepare for a hurricane. We don't want to know what is going to happen, we need to know what could, and for that, the NHC forecast methodology is completely flawed.

I cannot say for certain what this storm is going to do. But I am here to tell you that it CAN be as bad as a Category 3 or even higher hurricane that could come directly over La Paz. Please prepare accordingly.
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Nora Update 
Saturday, August 28, 2021, 04:49 AM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator
Nora is following the worst case scenario path. I never thought I would witness it in person but did expect it could happen some day. And here is that day, so far.

While I still vehemently disagree with their forecast methodology (the five day cone should include ANYWHERE any of the models suggest its possible the storm can go or otherwise demonstrate where, especially on land, people need to be aware there is a potential for a tropical storm to affect them. Nora will affect La Paz, how much is dependent upon how much energy can be absorbed by the hot waters in the Sea of Cortez versus what is lost to upper level sheer, which has been notably high but is predicted to diminish.

I am preparing for the worst, a hurricane that stays in the Sea of Cortez and lingers releasing all the pent up energy of the area in one go. This storm is going to be fierce though the winds will not be as high as if the storm came directly over La Paz, though tornadoes are not out of the question.

I am quite scared. I cannot keep up with regular forecasts because I am too anxious and too stressed to concentrate well enough to do much beyond deal with this thing as it develops.

I don't much feel like providing a service to La Paz for how I have been treated.

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Nora  
Friday, August 27, 2021, 06:20 AM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator
Nora is coming. It will be big. I will probably die, if not during, in the short term afterwards.

My health is failing. My ship is badly damaged and cannot survive a hurricane much less another month in the water. Even if I survive, any damage to my ship or belongings will be insurmountable for me, as no damage at all will be because my SSDI payments stopped because the Federal Benefits Unit here in Mexico deliberately sabotaged my benefits. I have evidence for all of my claims. I do not publish anything I do not know to be true. I have been my own lawyer for more than 10 years.

I need to not be invisible. These people are getting away with what they are doing because they censor and hide behind concepts such as antisemitism (I hadn't even entertained the concept until I got here, now I most definitely understand the conspiracy theories, just look up Malcolm Neil Shroyer Schoen and note his influence.

I will not be killed by these people.

Good luck to all of you, unless you're one of the assholes that is.


PS: If you don't like my forecasts, go ahead and continue to rely on the NHC. Yes, they were, so far, more correct in their forecast than I was this time, THIS TIME. How about next time?


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Nora update 
Friday, August 27, 2021, 02:19 AM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator
Read the link below to find out how the NHC says "we don't know what the fuck is going on."

It's an interesting read.


Nora is anyone's guess at this point. It is a double system alternating between having two centers around each other and concentric to each other. Because of this, the immediate steering direction of the storm cannot possibly be predicted. What I read from looking at the latest SSTs, assuming they are accurate, is that Nora is following the 28deg contour westward and would have to jump across cooler water to get back to 28 in order to head north to the peninsula.

At this point, I do not see Nora coming to La Paz, but I am not at all saying it cannot.

My forecast update then is to prepare for the possibility of a strong hurricane coming to La Paz as soon as Monday night.

My feeling, my personal prediction based on my instincts, is that the storm will head west of the peninsula, not even threatening the mainland south of Guadalajara.
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