I AM A Terrorist! 
Monday, August 30, 2021, 07:42 PM
Posted by Administrator
The US Government, specifically the Department of Homeland Security, according to the NYPD per the Stanislaus County Sheriffs, lists me on the TECS terrorist watchlist.

I am also apparently called a terrorist by the conglomerate of Big Tech that runs a website which hosts this list.

So, what is a terrorist?

Who am I allegedly terrorizing?

Am I really a terrorist?

A terrorist is someone that a government or other controlling entity says acts to strike fear for political means. Really, a "terrorist" is just people trying to do what they can against the oppressive government which has wronged them in some way. So, "terrorists" then are enemies of the state.

Who am I supposedly terrorizing? Well, they say I am terrorizing you. That's kind of hard to do behind a keyboard on a boat in Mexico, wouldn't you agree? You are part of the process, but not the victims. You are the audience, the ones the government wants to fear. Why? Because the government and other controlling entities (corporations, military industrial complex, deep state, you name it...) are afraid of me, and they are afraid of me because i might make you aware enough that they are afraid of you as well. And a government without a mandate from the people cannot survive if they are afraid of the people.

So, am I a terrorist? From your perspective, certainly not. Otherwise, I'd be, you know, killing people or something. But, from the perspective of those who maintain those lists, yes, absolutely I am a terrorist. But, I can't help it. It's in my nature, which is actually human nature, and which makes perfect sense when you realize that those who maintain those lists are not actually human...
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Nora Update 
Sunday, August 29, 2021, 05:20 PM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator
Nora continues to hug the coast, the eye now fully on shore and elongated and obviously in the process of disintegrating.

We are currently receiving winds that represent entrainment into the storm, that storm is a low, it draws air from high pressure areas around it. Our barometric pressure is decreasing as a result, falling from a high actually above where it was before the tropical wave even came here some time last night.

I do not expect storms, only continuing wind which will waver between stronger and weaker as the storms play out on the sea.

As for me, I am quite exhausted. I had just finished pulling out nearly all of my hernias when I pulled the biggest back through loading a simple propane bottle. The good news is, I figured out how I did it, precisely how I do it when I pull chain by hand. So I have to be extremely careful doing anything that is anything like pulling chain. Hard to do at anchor.

Enjoy the day. It's quite warm of course, the desert heat is blowing across the peninsula instead of being drawn up into local storms. We won't see monsoons for at least a few days.

Word of warning: The next tropical system will not miss La Paz. If conditions are right for the worst case scenario, it can still occur, with the system tracking up the west side of the Sea of Cortez or the Pacific coast of the peninsula where the SSTs remain high having not been reduced by the storm; or across the peninsula itself of course.

The next storm is called Olaf by the way.

Final word. I am not ignorant of New Orleans. I don't have the energy to concern myself, but my heart goes out to the city which I am certain will never be rebuilt. It is a city my family is connected to in a small way, but a city I have never visited. I have been following the storm because its fate is connected to Nora's. I have watched and saw the storm was going to hit the city several hours ago. It breaks my heart to see it happen. It is a place that will be erased from the map by the time you have read this post. RIP New Orleans.

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Why You Should Believe Me 
Sunday, August 29, 2021, 05:30 AM
Posted by Administrator
It occurred to me that people might not realize that I only write what I understand to be true, and that what I understand to be true is true, which translates to a pretty damn good chance that I am in fact correct in what I write here.

Afghanistan, for example (the previous entry), was a field for testing military gear, just as Vietnam was. I don't have to explain this or sell you the idea that it is a fact. I state this because it is an accepted fact that there is a Military Industrial Complex, and if you aren't aware of this fact, you aren't intelligent enough to be reading my blog. I say this because only intelligent enough people can read properly, that is, critically. Only intelligent enough people can read my writing and not take it for granted. The rest of you are so stupid as to not be able to question what I write. Stupid, by the way, is just lack of intelligence, failure to meet your potential in intelligence. You are as stupid as you are not intelligent.

So if you feel like you aren't getting an explanation and have to just believe me, don't feel bad. Yes, you are stupid. But you are among friends. Everyone in society is stupid. That just means you were never allowed to achieve your potential, whereas I was driven to it by society because I was socially rejected as a child.

You can also be confident you can believe what I write because I have a Universal perspective, which means I'm not trying to be right from anyone's perspective, I'm trying to be right from EVERYONE'S perspective. I don't have an ego that needs to be satisfied, meaning I do not have any inherent biases, nothing to cause me to have anything but a universal perspective.

And there's also the fact that I cannot lie because of the memory problems I have from the brain damage I suffered.

Taken together, they represent a guarantee that you are reading fact when you read something I write.

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Nora Update 
Sunday, August 29, 2021, 05:17 AM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator
Nora is still plying its way along the coast, following the path forecast by the NHC for almost 24 hours so far.

The storm is creating some big storms which present big enough to have me suggest that we could see big storms here in La Paz today. At the very least, we will get clouds and humidity from the storm today.
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The Afghanistan "Debacle" Was No Such Thing 
Sunday, August 29, 2021, 12:49 AM
Posted by Administrator
Afghanistan was a field, as in for field testing weapons and other articles of war and other mayhem. Afghanistan was a field for the so-called Military Industrial Complex.

So, why would anyone ever think that the biggest money making and spending machine on the planet would be so careless as to create the mess created at Kabul airport?

Why wasn't Bagram used instead? An isolated and well protected American base where people could be brought safely and allowed to fly out without threats of suicide bombing or other safety issues.

The reason is simple. Things went exactly as planned. Fuck the people, get the gear out. Oh, the people paid for it? Leave it behind.

Don't ever try to think of these things from your own point of view. Their point of view is profit over all else, including your life. In that context, who cares what happens in Kabul, right? The field has been shut down, we got our guys and toys out. Oh, suicide bombers in Kabul? We'll tell you where the guys who are going to do it...maybe afterwards.

And remember, that's why you pay income tax and work 40 hours a week.
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Nora IS a Miss, Will Not Directly Affect La Paz 
Sunday, August 29, 2021, 12:21 AM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator
We missed this one. The eye has moved ashore and will be moving even more eastward than the last NHC forecast I looked at, which showed the eye hugging the coast pretty much to San Carlos. It won't even make Mazatlan.

From the perspective of La Paz, there is no threat from Nora. However; Nora's system, the underlying tropical wave, has reduced our pressure sufficient to mean monsoonal thunderstorms (what we have been having, including those fun downdrafts/cloudbursts) will be on the menu, probably large and probably won't miss La Paz.

Enjoy your thunderstorm and be sure to prepare for flash floods.

Nora is going to Mazatlan instead of La Paz.

By the way, I will always stand by my criticism of the NHC. I posted in a prior entry a link and commentary stating that what they wrote was basically "we don't know" in jargon to make themselves look good. I said in my forecasts that I didn't know what was going to happen. That's honesty. I do not have access to the data that the NHC has. I don't have to. I have an understanding, a dynamic model in my mind of how these things work, always improving because I'm always honest with myself and in my forecasts. That kind of self objectivity is vital to learning how to forecast tropical weather, which is of course important to me because my life very much depends on it.

The NHC cannot tell you they don't know what is going to happen. That is because their forecast methodology is to report what they interpret their models as predicting what the storm will do. That is not a wise methodology because the reason we seek forecasts is to know what COULD happen so that we can be prepared. A good forecast tells us if the storm could affect us and what the quality of the data is to tell us, or an interpretation of the quality of the data such as a percentage chance. We need to know what could happen, and what level of confidence there is in the prediction. This guides our decisions in how to prepare for a storm. And that's the whole point of looking at tropical weather forecasts and why I'm sure you who have followed this forecast prefer my forecast to theirs. I tell you what you need to know because I find out what I need to know. I just report what I find and give you as much background data and interpretation as possible.

This is a link to the graphical forecast archive. Play and watch the animation. You will see what "we don't know what is going to happen" looks like, and precisely why I do not like their forecast methodology.

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Nora - It's a Miss...? 
Saturday, August 28, 2021, 08:52 PM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator
Nora seems to be on course to miss La Paz completely.

I will update this forecast if that changes.

Expect some warm humid weather tomorrow with the likelihood of broad thunderstorms with possible local gale force winds.

Enjoy your weekend. I know I am now.
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Nora Update - Good News? 
Saturday, August 28, 2021, 04:43 PM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator
I have had a good look at the satellite as well as today's weather fax and have a better idea of what's going on now, although it is absolutely a deciding moment for us here in La Paz as to whether or not this storm is going to affect us.

I see the system, which now extends all the way up the peninsula/Sea of Cortez, has begun rotating counterclockwise, with the center moving approximately northeast. This has affected Nora by steering it more east than the NHC has been forecasting, and as I forecast last update, tempered with my concern it could keep rotating and move back towards La Paz. My observations now demonstrate the Nora is actually beginning to interact with IDA's outflows, meaning the directions of the systems are starting to align, which of course means Nora is steering east, and thus away from La Paz.

What is also hopeful (from the perspective of not getting slammed by this storm) is that most of the storm's energies are being expressed in everwhere but the quadrant facing La Paz, meaning that if the storm continues this presentation, it is unlikely to even affect La Paz.

I am of course keeping a close eye and will studying satellite imagery intensely over the next two hours.

I should know by tonight if Nora is going to hit La Paz.
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Nora Update 
Saturday, August 28, 2021, 10:51 AM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator
The NHC forecast linked below is in error and shows the storm traveling past La Paz to the east. This is no longer the case. It appears that Ida is actually steering the system (Nora as well as the underlying tropical wave are still a single system.) Ida is of course moving generally north, which equates to influence in steering Nora also moving north.

It is my opinion that the storm will continue to track east, towards the mainland, but that it will steer towards La Paz, possibly at the last minute, leaving La Paz once again unprepared for a major storm.

Do not be fooled by the NHC forecast. They are only concerned with being right at the expense of people's lives. Their methodology for forecasting is flawed as it does not consider what people need, and that is to know whether or not to prepare for a hurricane. We don't want to know what is going to happen, we need to know what could, and for that, the NHC forecast methodology is completely flawed.

I cannot say for certain what this storm is going to do. But I am here to tell you that it CAN be as bad as a Category 3 or even higher hurricane that could come directly over La Paz. Please prepare accordingly.
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Nora Update 
Saturday, August 28, 2021, 12:49 AM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator
Nora is following the worst case scenario path. I never thought I would witness it in person but did expect it could happen some day. And here is that day, so far.

While I still vehemently disagree with their forecast methodology (the five day cone should include ANYWHERE any of the models suggest its possible the storm can go or otherwise demonstrate where, especially on land, people need to be aware there is a potential for a tropical storm to affect them. Nora will affect La Paz, how much is dependent upon how much energy can be absorbed by the hot waters in the Sea of Cortez versus what is lost to upper level sheer, which has been notably high but is predicted to diminish.

I am preparing for the worst, a hurricane that stays in the Sea of Cortez and lingers releasing all the pent up energy of the area in one go. This storm is going to be fierce though the winds will not be as high as if the storm came directly over La Paz, though tornadoes are not out of the question.

I am quite scared. I cannot keep up with regular forecasts because I am too anxious and too stressed to concentrate well enough to do much beyond deal with this thing as it develops.

I don't much feel like providing a service to La Paz for how I have been treated.

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Friday, August 27, 2021, 02:20 AM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator
Nora is coming. It will be big. I will probably die, if not during, in the short term afterwards.

My health is failing. My ship is badly damaged and cannot survive a hurricane much less another month in the water. Even if I survive, any damage to my ship or belongings will be insurmountable for me, as no damage at all will be because my SSDI payments stopped because the Federal Benefits Unit here in Mexico deliberately sabotaged my benefits. I have evidence for all of my claims. I do not publish anything I do not know to be true. I have been my own lawyer for more than 10 years.

I need to not be invisible. These people are getting away with what they are doing because they censor and hide behind concepts such as antisemitism (I hadn't even entertained the concept until I got here, now I most definitely understand the conspiracy theories, just look up Malcolm Neil Shroyer Schoen and note his influence.

I will not be killed by these people.

Good luck to all of you, unless you're one of the assholes that is.

PS: If you don't like my forecasts, go ahead and continue to rely on the NHC. Yes, they were, so far, more correct in their forecast than I was this time, THIS TIME. How about next time?

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Nora update 
Thursday, August 26, 2021, 10:19 PM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator
Read the link below to find out how the NHC says "we don't know what the fuck is going on."

It's an interesting read.

Nora is anyone's guess at this point. It is a double system alternating between having two centers around each other and concentric to each other. Because of this, the immediate steering direction of the storm cannot possibly be predicted. What I read from looking at the latest SSTs, assuming they are accurate, is that Nora is following the 28deg contour westward and would have to jump across cooler water to get back to 28 in order to head north to the peninsula.

At this point, I do not see Nora coming to La Paz, but I am not at all saying it cannot.

My forecast update then is to prepare for the possibility of a strong hurricane coming to La Paz as soon as Monday night.

My feeling, my personal prediction based on my instincts, is that the storm will head west of the peninsula, not even threatening the mainland south of Guadalajara.
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Nora - Initial Forecast 
Wednesday, August 25, 2021, 06:42 PM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator
I have been tracking this disturbance since before Grace cross the mainland. My tracking, until this morning, put the storm safely west of the peninsula, but NHC has forecast its track up the Pacific side of the peninsula. I am fairly certain the storm will track west of where the NHC forecast says it will go, but I'm going to be cautious and suggest that Nora could possibly come to La Paz by Monday morning as a high as a Category 3 hurricane!

I will continue to follow this storm, while I am making preparations.

For the record, I do not know if I will survive any storms as my ship is in dire need of repair and my body is in just as bad shape because of multiple hernias.
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Remnants of Grace 
Saturday, August 21, 2021, 06:18 AM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator
It looks as though remnants of Grace are no longer going to safely head south of the cape as has been the appearance up to this point, as such, I am now monitoring Grace as it appears on course to hit Cabo San Lucas.

At this point, motion appears to put this storm on track to hit the peninsula on a northwest trajectory at Cabo or San Jose and continue northwest, grazing La Paz with outer bands.

This is of course entirely dependent upon formation after the system crosses mainland Mexico into the Pacific. The system developed extremely quickly in the Gulf of Campeche and could form just as fast (from 35kt to 90kt in 6 hours!)

Expect that there could be a tropical storm, perhaps even a hurricane, possibly affecting La Paz in the next three days.
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Tropical Depression Marty Update 
Thursday, August 19, 2021, 09:47 AM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator

I am officially calling and naming this storm as it has continued to maintain circulation and is now showing signs of strengthening and developing further. But that development will be occurring in the sea just below Cabo and thus we will have no more than two days warning of what could be a major hurricane if upper level conditions are suited for such rapid development.

Note: the most difficult aspect of forecasting tropical weather is where the system will go. This is because you have a system moving of it's own volition, as well as the influences around it including the multiple air masses which can affect its movement. These influences all have an affect on the system both in the moment, as well as in the future. These in turn influence each other and are influenced by other air masses. The movements of these air masses is somewhat visible and predictable via satellite images, but even supercomputers have difficult predicting how these influences will affect the movement of a tropical system. I do not have the benefit, nor limitation, of such computers or models. But neither am I able to perfectly predict such movements. I do the best job I can. But my forecast methodology is strictly selfish and therefore would benefit anyone in my immediate area, as I don't care where the storm goes, I only care whether or not it will affect me.

Having said that, I believe Marty will come to the peninsula around Cabo San Lucas or perhaps even as far east as San Jose del Cabo. But the system will then move westward. This is unless a system pushing westward dissapates in which case, Marty could become the worst case scenario for the Sea of Cortez, and go straight up the Sea in what look to be ideal conditions for development of a major hurricane.

I am personally scared, especially because this system is not being forecast. I do not believe it can develop fast enough to become a major hurricane affecting La Paz, but it is entirely possible and no one will know it until it hits Cabo.

I will continue to monitor the storm.
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