The Afghanistan "Debacle" Was No Such Thing 
Sunday, August 29, 2021, 12:49 AM
Posted by Administrator
Afghanistan was a field, as in for field testing weapons and other articles of war and other mayhem. Afghanistan was a field for the so-called Military Industrial Complex.

So, why would anyone ever think that the biggest money making and spending machine on the planet would be so careless as to create the mess created at Kabul airport?

Why wasn't Bagram used instead? An isolated and well protected American base where people could be brought safely and allowed to fly out without threats of suicide bombing or other safety issues.

The reason is simple. Things went exactly as planned. Fuck the people, get the gear out. Oh, the people paid for it? Leave it behind.

Don't ever try to think of these things from your own point of view. Their point of view is profit over all else, including your life. In that context, who cares what happens in Kabul, right? The field has been shut down, we got our guys and toys out. Oh, suicide bombers in Kabul? We'll tell you where the guys who are going to do it...maybe afterwards.


And remember, that's why you pay income tax and work 40 hours a week.
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Nora IS a Miss, Will Not Directly Affect La Paz 
Sunday, August 29, 2021, 12:21 AM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator
We missed this one. The eye has moved ashore and will be moving even more eastward than the last NHC forecast I looked at, which showed the eye hugging the coast pretty much to San Carlos. It won't even make Mazatlan.

From the perspective of La Paz, there is no threat from Nora. However; Nora's system, the underlying tropical wave, has reduced our pressure sufficient to mean monsoonal thunderstorms (what we have been having, including those fun downdrafts/cloudbursts) will be on the menu, probably large and probably won't miss La Paz.

Enjoy your thunderstorm and be sure to prepare for flash floods.

Nora is going to Mazatlan instead of La Paz.



By the way, I will always stand by my criticism of the NHC. I posted in a prior entry a link and commentary stating that what they wrote was basically "we don't know" in jargon to make themselves look good. I said in my forecasts that I didn't know what was going to happen. That's honesty. I do not have access to the data that the NHC has. I don't have to. I have an understanding, a dynamic model in my mind of how these things work, always improving because I'm always honest with myself and in my forecasts. That kind of self objectivity is vital to learning how to forecast tropical weather, which is of course important to me because my life very much depends on it.

The NHC cannot tell you they don't know what is going to happen. That is because their forecast methodology is to report what they interpret their models as predicting what the storm will do. That is not a wise methodology because the reason we seek forecasts is to know what COULD happen so that we can be prepared. A good forecast tells us if the storm could affect us and what the quality of the data is to tell us, or an interpretation of the quality of the data such as a percentage chance. We need to know what could happen, and what level of confidence there is in the prediction. This guides our decisions in how to prepare for a storm. And that's the whole point of looking at tropical weather forecasts and why I'm sure you who have followed this forecast prefer my forecast to theirs. I tell you what you need to know because I find out what I need to know. I just report what I find and give you as much background data and interpretation as possible.

This is a link to the graphical forecast archive. Play and watch the animation. You will see what "we don't know what is going to happen" looks like, and precisely why I do not like their forecast methodology.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2021/NORA_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_no_line
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Nora - It's a Miss...? 
Saturday, August 28, 2021, 08:52 PM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator
Nora seems to be on course to miss La Paz completely.

I will update this forecast if that changes.

Expect some warm humid weather tomorrow with the likelihood of broad thunderstorms with possible local gale force winds.

Enjoy your weekend. I know I am now.
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Nora Update - Good News? 
Saturday, August 28, 2021, 04:43 PM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator
I have had a good look at the satellite as well as today's weather fax and have a better idea of what's going on now, although it is absolutely a deciding moment for us here in La Paz as to whether or not this storm is going to affect us.

I see the system, which now extends all the way up the peninsula/Sea of Cortez, has begun rotating counterclockwise, with the center moving approximately northeast. This has affected Nora by steering it more east than the NHC has been forecasting, and as I forecast last update, tempered with my concern it could keep rotating and move back towards La Paz. My observations now demonstrate the Nora is actually beginning to interact with IDA's outflows, meaning the directions of the systems are starting to align, which of course means Nora is steering east, and thus away from La Paz.

What is also hopeful (from the perspective of not getting slammed by this storm) is that most of the storm's energies are being expressed in everwhere but the quadrant facing La Paz, meaning that if the storm continues this presentation, it is unlikely to even affect La Paz.

I am of course keeping a close eye and will studying satellite imagery intensely over the next two hours.

I should know by tonight if Nora is going to hit La Paz.
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Nora Update 
Saturday, August 28, 2021, 10:51 AM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator
The NHC forecast linked below is in error and shows the storm traveling past La Paz to the east. This is no longer the case. It appears that Ida is actually steering the system (Nora as well as the underlying tropical wave are still a single system.) Ida is of course moving generally north, which equates to influence in steering Nora also moving north.

It is my opinion that the storm will continue to track east, towards the mainland, but that it will steer towards La Paz, possibly at the last minute, leaving La Paz once again unprepared for a major storm.

Do not be fooled by the NHC forecast. They are only concerned with being right at the expense of people's lives. Their methodology for forecasting is flawed as it does not consider what people need, and that is to know whether or not to prepare for a hurricane. We don't want to know what is going to happen, we need to know what could, and for that, the NHC forecast methodology is completely flawed.

I cannot say for certain what this storm is going to do. But I am here to tell you that it CAN be as bad as a Category 3 or even higher hurricane that could come directly over La Paz. Please prepare accordingly.
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Nora Update 
Saturday, August 28, 2021, 12:49 AM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator
Nora is following the worst case scenario path. I never thought I would witness it in person but did expect it could happen some day. And here is that day, so far.

While I still vehemently disagree with their forecast methodology (the five day cone should include ANYWHERE any of the models suggest its possible the storm can go or otherwise demonstrate where, especially on land, people need to be aware there is a potential for a tropical storm to affect them. Nora will affect La Paz, how much is dependent upon how much energy can be absorbed by the hot waters in the Sea of Cortez versus what is lost to upper level sheer, which has been notably high but is predicted to diminish.

I am preparing for the worst, a hurricane that stays in the Sea of Cortez and lingers releasing all the pent up energy of the area in one go. This storm is going to be fierce though the winds will not be as high as if the storm came directly over La Paz, though tornadoes are not out of the question.

I am quite scared. I cannot keep up with regular forecasts because I am too anxious and too stressed to concentrate well enough to do much beyond deal with this thing as it develops.

I don't much feel like providing a service to La Paz for how I have been treated.

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Nora  
Friday, August 27, 2021, 02:20 AM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator
Nora is coming. It will be big. I will probably die, if not during, in the short term afterwards.

My health is failing. My ship is badly damaged and cannot survive a hurricane much less another month in the water. Even if I survive, any damage to my ship or belongings will be insurmountable for me, as no damage at all will be because my SSDI payments stopped because the Federal Benefits Unit here in Mexico deliberately sabotaged my benefits. I have evidence for all of my claims. I do not publish anything I do not know to be true. I have been my own lawyer for more than 10 years.

I need to not be invisible. These people are getting away with what they are doing because they censor and hide behind concepts such as antisemitism (I hadn't even entertained the concept until I got here, now I most definitely understand the conspiracy theories, just look up Malcolm Neil Shroyer Schoen and note his influence.

I will not be killed by these people.

Good luck to all of you, unless you're one of the assholes that is.


PS: If you don't like my forecasts, go ahead and continue to rely on the NHC. Yes, they were, so far, more correct in their forecast than I was this time, THIS TIME. How about next time?


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Nora update 
Thursday, August 26, 2021, 10:19 PM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator
Read the link below to find out how the NHC says "we don't know what the fuck is going on."

It's an interesting read.


Nora is anyone's guess at this point. It is a double system alternating between having two centers around each other and concentric to each other. Because of this, the immediate steering direction of the storm cannot possibly be predicted. What I read from looking at the latest SSTs, assuming they are accurate, is that Nora is following the 28deg contour westward and would have to jump across cooler water to get back to 28 in order to head north to the peninsula.

At this point, I do not see Nora coming to La Paz, but I am not at all saying it cannot.

My forecast update then is to prepare for the possibility of a strong hurricane coming to La Paz as soon as Monday night.

My feeling, my personal prediction based on my instincts, is that the storm will head west of the peninsula, not even threatening the mainland south of Guadalajara.
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Nora - Initial Forecast 
Wednesday, August 25, 2021, 06:42 PM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator
I have been tracking this disturbance since before Grace cross the mainland. My tracking, until this morning, put the storm safely west of the peninsula, but NHC has forecast its track up the Pacific side of the peninsula. I am fairly certain the storm will track west of where the NHC forecast says it will go, but I'm going to be cautious and suggest that Nora could possibly come to La Paz by Monday morning as a high as a Category 3 hurricane!

I will continue to follow this storm, while I am making preparations.

For the record, I do not know if I will survive any storms as my ship is in dire need of repair and my body is in just as bad shape because of multiple hernias.
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Remnants of Grace 
Saturday, August 21, 2021, 06:18 AM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator
It looks as though remnants of Grace are no longer going to safely head south of the cape as has been the appearance up to this point, as such, I am now monitoring Grace as it appears on course to hit Cabo San Lucas.

At this point, motion appears to put this storm on track to hit the peninsula on a northwest trajectory at Cabo or San Jose and continue northwest, grazing La Paz with outer bands.

This is of course entirely dependent upon formation after the system crosses mainland Mexico into the Pacific. The system developed extremely quickly in the Gulf of Campeche and could form just as fast (from 35kt to 90kt in 6 hours!)

Expect that there could be a tropical storm, perhaps even a hurricane, possibly affecting La Paz in the next three days.
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Tropical Depression Marty Update 
Thursday, August 19, 2021, 09:47 AM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator

I am officially calling and naming this storm as it has continued to maintain circulation and is now showing signs of strengthening and developing further. But that development will be occurring in the sea just below Cabo and thus we will have no more than two days warning of what could be a major hurricane if upper level conditions are suited for such rapid development.

Note: the most difficult aspect of forecasting tropical weather is where the system will go. This is because you have a system moving of it's own volition, as well as the influences around it including the multiple air masses which can affect its movement. These influences all have an affect on the system both in the moment, as well as in the future. These in turn influence each other and are influenced by other air masses. The movements of these air masses is somewhat visible and predictable via satellite images, but even supercomputers have difficult predicting how these influences will affect the movement of a tropical system. I do not have the benefit, nor limitation, of such computers or models. But neither am I able to perfectly predict such movements. I do the best job I can. But my forecast methodology is strictly selfish and therefore would benefit anyone in my immediate area, as I don't care where the storm goes, I only care whether or not it will affect me.

Having said that, I believe Marty will come to the peninsula around Cabo San Lucas or perhaps even as far east as San Jose del Cabo. But the system will then move westward. This is unless a system pushing westward dissapates in which case, Marty could become the worst case scenario for the Sea of Cortez, and go straight up the Sea in what look to be ideal conditions for development of a major hurricane.

I am personally scared, especially because this system is not being forecast. I do not believe it can develop fast enough to become a major hurricane affecting La Paz, but it is entirely possible and no one will know it until it hits Cabo.

I will continue to monitor the storm.
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Tropical Low "Marty" Update 
Wednesday, August 18, 2021, 01:42 PM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator
I am still following the very small disturbance that has continued to maintain a small area of circulation and developing storms running along the coast of Mexico north of the Gulf of Tohanopec.

This system may yet affect La Paz though I do believe it will remain west of La Paz.

The system does not appear to be large enough or of low enough pressure to merit forecast by the NHC. However; I do not share the forecast methodologies and reasoning of the NHC, I am concerned with my safety. As such, I am monitoring this disturbance and will continue to update this forecast as long as the system can potentially threaten La Paz.
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Special Tropical Forecast Note: Linda Could Hit Hawaii 
Wednesday, August 18, 2021, 06:39 AM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator

I believe that once again the NHC is making an error in their forecasting of a tropical storm in that they have publicly stated and shown the system not affecting Hawaii when in fact there is a good chance it could.

The forecast linked below ("related link") should show a cone including Hawaii and include the warning that if the system does follow the sea surface temperature contours as they have been shown to, that the system would not only steer towards and over the Hawaiian islands, but would retain more of its strength and possibly strengthen relative to its present status.

I am noting on the satellite that starting at 0815UTC the eye of Linda hooked quickly northwestward; but only briefly as 0945, Linda was bearing due west again. While I do not know the precise coordinates of these events, they do seem to correspond to the contours of the latest SST image provided by the NHC website. This is not to say that it did follow the contour and thus that it will, but if it does, it puts a Hurricane Linda on track to strike Hawaii with full storm surge and at least Category 2 hurricane conditions.

This of course does not affect La Paz. I feel obligated to post this in case anyone who reads this has friends or family in Hawaii they can warn, especially if they are on the western or northern shores of the big island. It is also posted in order to demonstrate the error in the National Hurricane Center's forecasting methodology, as I have had the unfortunate pleasure of demonstrating to them each year since 2015.

Again, my own amendment to the NHC's present forecast for Linda would expand the cone to include Hawaii and demonstrate retention of strength and possible increase relative to present strength which at the time of forecast was 105mph winds. This means that I am predicting that Hawaii could be directly affected by a stronger system than the NHC currently predicts could not affect directly Hawaii per their visual forecast.
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Special Forecast: Atlantic Storm Grace 
Tuesday, August 17, 2021, 06:44 AM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator

It appears I must go ahead and present a forecast for the potential affecting of La Paz by remnants of Atlantic Tropical Storm Grace.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is predicting Grace to potentially cross the Mexico mainland and head in the general direction of La Paz. Per the NHC's forecast, we could see the effects of Grace as soon as Monday or Tuesday of next week.

I am myself unaware of even the potential for Grace to cross the peninsula and affect La Paz. I see no reason to doubt the NHC's forecast which does not yet extend past the mainland for their five day forecast for Grace. I do not believe Grace could survive sufficiently to achieve upwelling from the Sea of Cortez. If the system survives and given its present form and the atmospheric conditions, threat of real tropical weather beyond just a depression is minimal.

I am however keeping an eye on the situation.
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Potential Tropical Disturbance "Marty" 
Tuesday, August 17, 2021, 01:53 AM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator

I am making a preliminary forecast for what I expect could be hurricane Marty.

An area of circulation off the Gulf of Tohanapec follows a compressed tropical wave. This hasn't been caught by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) yet, but I am calling it because it has every potential of hitting La Paz.

If this system forms, it is moving slow enough through conditions suitable enough to support hurricane formation. The system appears to me to be on a course that would put it on the pacific side of the peninsula, which could evolve into a path leading it towards La Paz. As I am only concerned with forecasting for my own location, La Paz, I am suggesting that there is a possibility of a tropical disturbance affecting La Paz within the next 4-7 days, most likely around 6 days from now.

Update 17 August 5am:

The system that could become Marty is the result of a very small tropical wave which while there is some apparent organization, it does not appear to be strong enough to be able to gather strength, thus it is not on the NHC's radar so to speak, that is, they are not forecasting it as a potential system.

I will delete or rename this post if Marty never even starts to develop.
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