Nora - Initial Forecast 
Wednesday, August 25, 2021, 10:42 PM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator
I have been tracking this disturbance since before Grace cross the mainland. My tracking, until this morning, put the storm safely west of the peninsula, but NHC has forecast its track up the Pacific side of the peninsula. I am fairly certain the storm will track west of where the NHC forecast says it will go, but I'm going to be cautious and suggest that Nora could possibly come to La Paz by Monday morning as a high as a Category 3 hurricane!

I will continue to follow this storm, while I am making preparations.

For the record, I do not know if I will survive any storms as my ship is in dire need of repair and my body is in just as bad shape because of multiple hernias.
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Remnants of Grace 
Saturday, August 21, 2021, 10:18 AM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator
It looks as though remnants of Grace are no longer going to safely head south of the cape as has been the appearance up to this point, as such, I am now monitoring Grace as it appears on course to hit Cabo San Lucas.

At this point, motion appears to put this storm on track to hit the peninsula on a northwest trajectory at Cabo or San Jose and continue northwest, grazing La Paz with outer bands.

This is of course entirely dependent upon formation after the system crosses mainland Mexico into the Pacific. The system developed extremely quickly in the Gulf of Campeche and could form just as fast (from 35kt to 90kt in 6 hours!)

Expect that there could be a tropical storm, perhaps even a hurricane, possibly affecting La Paz in the next three days.
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Tropical Depression Marty Update 
Thursday, August 19, 2021, 01:47 PM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator

I am officially calling and naming this storm as it has continued to maintain circulation and is now showing signs of strengthening and developing further. But that development will be occurring in the sea just below Cabo and thus we will have no more than two days warning of what could be a major hurricane if upper level conditions are suited for such rapid development.

Note: the most difficult aspect of forecasting tropical weather is where the system will go. This is because you have a system moving of it's own volition, as well as the influences around it including the multiple air masses which can affect its movement. These influences all have an affect on the system both in the moment, as well as in the future. These in turn influence each other and are influenced by other air masses. The movements of these air masses is somewhat visible and predictable via satellite images, but even supercomputers have difficult predicting how these influences will affect the movement of a tropical system. I do not have the benefit, nor limitation, of such computers or models. But neither am I able to perfectly predict such movements. I do the best job I can. But my forecast methodology is strictly selfish and therefore would benefit anyone in my immediate area, as I don't care where the storm goes, I only care whether or not it will affect me.

Having said that, I believe Marty will come to the peninsula around Cabo San Lucas or perhaps even as far east as San Jose del Cabo. But the system will then move westward. This is unless a system pushing westward dissapates in which case, Marty could become the worst case scenario for the Sea of Cortez, and go straight up the Sea in what look to be ideal conditions for development of a major hurricane.

I am personally scared, especially because this system is not being forecast. I do not believe it can develop fast enough to become a major hurricane affecting La Paz, but it is entirely possible and no one will know it until it hits Cabo.

I will continue to monitor the storm.
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Tropical Low "Marty" Update 
Wednesday, August 18, 2021, 05:42 PM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator
I am still following the very small disturbance that has continued to maintain a small area of circulation and developing storms running along the coast of Mexico north of the Gulf of Tohanopec.

This system may yet affect La Paz though I do believe it will remain west of La Paz.

The system does not appear to be large enough or of low enough pressure to merit forecast by the NHC. However; I do not share the forecast methodologies and reasoning of the NHC, I am concerned with my safety. As such, I am monitoring this disturbance and will continue to update this forecast as long as the system can potentially threaten La Paz.
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Special Tropical Forecast Note: Linda Could Hit Hawaii 
Wednesday, August 18, 2021, 10:39 AM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator

I believe that once again the NHC is making an error in their forecasting of a tropical storm in that they have publicly stated and shown the system not affecting Hawaii when in fact there is a good chance it could.

The forecast linked below ("related link") should show a cone including Hawaii and include the warning that if the system does follow the sea surface temperature contours as they have been shown to, that the system would not only steer towards and over the Hawaiian islands, but would retain more of its strength and possibly strengthen relative to its present status.

I am noting on the satellite that starting at 0815UTC the eye of Linda hooked quickly northwestward; but only briefly as 0945, Linda was bearing due west again. While I do not know the precise coordinates of these events, they do seem to correspond to the contours of the latest SST image provided by the NHC website. This is not to say that it did follow the contour and thus that it will, but if it does, it puts a Hurricane Linda on track to strike Hawaii with full storm surge and at least Category 2 hurricane conditions.

This of course does not affect La Paz. I feel obligated to post this in case anyone who reads this has friends or family in Hawaii they can warn, especially if they are on the western or northern shores of the big island. It is also posted in order to demonstrate the error in the National Hurricane Center's forecasting methodology, as I have had the unfortunate pleasure of demonstrating to them each year since 2015.

Again, my own amendment to the NHC's present forecast for Linda would expand the cone to include Hawaii and demonstrate retention of strength and possible increase relative to present strength which at the time of forecast was 105mph winds. This means that I am predicting that Hawaii could be directly affected by a stronger system than the NHC currently predicts could not affect directly Hawaii per their visual forecast.
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Special Forecast: Atlantic Storm Grace 
Tuesday, August 17, 2021, 10:44 AM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator

It appears I must go ahead and present a forecast for the potential affecting of La Paz by remnants of Atlantic Tropical Storm Grace.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is predicting Grace to potentially cross the Mexico mainland and head in the general direction of La Paz. Per the NHC's forecast, we could see the effects of Grace as soon as Monday or Tuesday of next week.

I am myself unaware of even the potential for Grace to cross the peninsula and affect La Paz. I see no reason to doubt the NHC's forecast which does not yet extend past the mainland for their five day forecast for Grace. I do not believe Grace could survive sufficiently to achieve upwelling from the Sea of Cortez. If the system survives and given its present form and the atmospheric conditions, threat of real tropical weather beyond just a depression is minimal.

I am however keeping an eye on the situation.
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Potential Tropical Disturbance "Marty" 
Tuesday, August 17, 2021, 05:53 AM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator

I am making a preliminary forecast for what I expect could be hurricane Marty.

An area of circulation off the Gulf of Tohanapec follows a compressed tropical wave. This hasn't been caught by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) yet, but I am calling it because it has every potential of hitting La Paz.

If this system forms, it is moving slow enough through conditions suitable enough to support hurricane formation. The system appears to me to be on a course that would put it on the pacific side of the peninsula, which could evolve into a path leading it towards La Paz. As I am only concerned with forecasting for my own location, La Paz, I am suggesting that there is a possibility of a tropical disturbance affecting La Paz within the next 4-7 days, most likely around 6 days from now.

Update 17 August 5am:

The system that could become Marty is the result of a very small tropical wave which while there is some apparent organization, it does not appear to be strong enough to be able to gather strength, thus it is not on the NHC's radar so to speak, that is, they are not forecasting it as a potential system.

I will delete or rename this post if Marty never even starts to develop.
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Elite as Preppers? 
Tuesday, August 10, 2021, 12:10 PM
Posted by Administrator

What if you were a prepper, and you had billions of dollars, and you had a few friends who also had billions in accumulated wealth.

What kind of prepping would you do when you COULD do ANYTHING?

Would you limit your efforts to preparing yourself when you had the power to shape the direction of the world itself?

Would you shape the world to become what you wanted it to be after it all came crashing down if you had the ability and the powerful friends to be able to do so?

Would you make it all collapse into what you wanted it to be if you could?

I notice you are sitting there without billions. Perhaps you should think about your answers in the context of someone who doesn't have to care about anything but accumulating wealth at any and everyone else's expense. Would those who have so much wealth and power really engineer the collapse of society so that they can live better lives from their own perspective?

Perhaps the question is, what would keep them from doing so?
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Kevin Remnants Forecast 
Tuesday, August 10, 2021, 12:03 PM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator
Remnants of a band of Kevin are crossing the peninsula south of La Paz and could bring monsoonal storms to La Paz today.

I expect a bit more of the same as yesterday, possibly intense but short-lived thunderstorms directly over La Paz. Any winds will be local and of a downdraft nature similar to last week's spectacular event which I witnessed firsthand as it happened, came to the construction sites and picked up dust, then went over the anchorage.

These strong winds are of course a concern as are the potential for flash flooding. Water in the bay is now highly toxic due to runoff from yesterday's rains though the peak tide will clear it out unless there is more rain in the next days.

Prepare for the possibility of more intense storms. I am ready for them but expect just slightly stronger than yesterday's rain shower.
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Guillermo Initial Forecast update 
Saturday, July 17, 2021, 03:29 AM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator
Guillermo has presented enough to give me a better idea of where it could go, and north is not one of those directions.

La Paz will not be affected by Guillermo unless conditions change drastically.
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Guillermo - Initial Forecast - Preliminary 
Friday, July 16, 2021, 09:34 PM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator

I am posting a preliminary forecast for the coming tropical storm which will be named Guillermo in an abundance of precaution and because of the speed with which the system is developing and potentially moving towards the Baja Peninsula.

At this time, all factors support rapid development of this system and potential travel of the system to La Paz. This is not to say that is where I believe the system will go, but that I believe the system could come to La Paz. I forecast here for possible worst case scenario.

Worst case with Guillermo I believe is upwards of a Category 5 hurricane, though that would require extraordinary circumstances. But that potential is there, and any potential preparations you might want to make, should be made now.

I do not yet know what Guillermo is going to do, or even if it will form and become a named storm. I believe it will, and I believe it will not follow Felicia, but go more north, following warmer waters and the general direction of upper level winds which are presently going northeast but balanced against momentum towards the west. How much the warmer waters and upper level winds steer Guillermo is unknown to me at this time.

Again, a preliminary forecast out of an abundance of precaution. Guillermo has ever potential to hit La Paz, and hard, within two weeks. Keep an eye on the weather, and plan accordingly.
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A Note on Corporations 
Thursday, July 15, 2021, 07:08 PM
Posted by Administrator

Corporations were created to win the second World War. The greatest war machine became what we know as the Military Indistrial Complex.

Corporations came to be to fight a war. As long as corporations exist, there will be war by necessity of their existence. War is the nature of corporations. Ending corporations means ending their war against humanity.
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A Question for Americans 
Thursday, July 8, 2021, 02:38 PM
Posted by Administrator

This question is posed for the benefit of citizens and residents of the United States of America.

Are you sure that you are not part of an effort to destroy America?

Are you defending your country, or are you helping tear it apart from the inside?

I ask these questions because it seems quite clear to me that there is an effort to destroy America, and that this plan is part of an effort to install a single governing body to control all world affairs and all human activity - in the name of protecting humanity from a global emergency or emergencies.

Ask yourself again, from a social perspective and from a military perspective, what you think is really happening to America as a nation. Is America becoming stronger, staying just as strong, or becoming weak?
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Critical Race Theory 
Wednesday, July 7, 2021, 06:26 PM
Posted by Administrator

Critical Race Theory attempts to convince people to take the blame for slavery because they are white.

But, it was not white people who kept slaves, it was white people who FREED slaves.

The key word is people. Those who kept slaves cannot be said to be human. It was ordinary people like you who helped free slaves from the elite of the time.

That's right, it wasn't Joe Smith who had slaves, it was the likes of Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates. And the ONLY reason they do not have slaves (that we are aware of) is because it is against the law to do so.

So, don't take the blame for slavery. Take credit for freeing the slaves, because you are descended not from those who owned slaves, but those who freed them.
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You Are Not Human, You Are Dangerous to Me 
Monday, July 5, 2021, 09:56 AM
Posted by Administrator

I am writing this specifically about one person, but it applies to everyone reading this who does not have such a high degree of empathy as to be compelled to yawn when someone else does.

There is a fundamental and basic assumption that you are making that is wrong and which you base your entire perspective on, and that is the notion that you are human.

This is false.

You are not human. You are domesticated. You were raised in society, by society, and lacking any natural development. Which means that in all likelihood, you never had the chance to learn empathy. But, since society doesn't actually understand empathy, it cannot possibly teach it properly and so anyone who does learn it, learns it on accident instead of by design because society cannot possibly provide for what it does not understand it needs to.

What this means is that you cannot be human in your interactions with other humans. Because you lack empathy, the only way you can communicate is verbally. We human beings learned verbal language after we already could communicate quite well, better than with verbal language. But without empathy, we cannot read body language, and thus we miss the whole picture and have to rely on words which attempt to give meaning to thoughts. Your ability to communicate then is strictly limited to verbal language.

What makes you dangerous to me is the state of mind you exist in versus the one which humans are in by default and which I cannot leave, and that is the state of mind where your ego is in control. It is in fact the state of mind we are in when we interact with any strangers or we are outside of our intimate space. It is interaction strictly through verbal language and without use of empathy.

How this is dangerous to me is that I cannot be in this state, at all. I cannot communicate strictly with verbal language because I lack the ability thanks to brain damage. When I am forced to communicate without empathy, I am forced to put together a temporary ego, and not a very good one. It takes a great degree of energy to maintain this state, something I now realize actors are familiar with because it is essentially playing a character to a live audience.

If I am forced to create a role to play in order to interact with people, I am not myself. This is okay if I leave my boat to go ashore and buy supplies because it is temporary and doesn't require me to extend a great deal of energy for more than few hours. But, if I am forced into this state in my home by someone who lives with me, I cannot come down from a state of mind I must work to be in, and thus I become mentally fatigued, the product of all of the stress of dealing with people through a temporary personality which requires a great deal of work to maintain.

So I am in a rather difficult and ironic situation: I can't live with someone who isn't human. But, I cannot live alone. It is dangerous for me to be alone because I could die because of a simple mistake, as a friend did who also suffered epilepsy. But, if the person living with me isn't human because he (or she) lacks empathy, then the person is dangerous to me, but in a different way. Without the ability to rest my mind, the constant stress of having to play a role with someone in my own home wears me down and prevents me from making any real significant progress on the problems I need to solve, such as maintaining and repairing my vessel, which is my home.

I can only live with a human being. Presently, this is not the case. The person I live with was born into a family and society that deprived him of any means to develop naturally, and in his case, he was so unwanted by his mother as to be born 5 weeks premature. The person who was supposed to be my livein caregiver has become my ward. Ironically, I have to take care of him. He is making my life incredibly difficult, especially given that the situation I am in is a direct result of his actions.

But, I cannot live alone, not without risk of dying for a simple mistake. So, I am forced to live with someone who makes my life a living hell.

Just in case you were wondering why I am so stressed.
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