I am posting a preliminary forecast for the coming tropical storm which will be named Guillermo in an abundance of precaution and because of the speed with which the system is developing and potentially moving towards the Baja Peninsula.

At this time, all factors support rapid development of this system and potential travel of the system to La Paz. This is not to say that is where I believe the system will go, but that I believe the system could come to La Paz. I forecast here for possible worst case scenario.

Worst case with Guillermo I believe is upwards of a Category 5 hurricane, though that would require extraordinary circumstances. But that potential is there, and any potential preparations you might want to make, should be made now.

I do not yet know what Guillermo is going to do, or even if it will form and become a named storm. I believe it will, and I believe it will not follow Felicia, but go more north, following warmer waters and the general direction of upper level winds which are presently going northeast but balanced against momentum towards the west. How much the warmer waters and upper level winds steer Guillermo is unknown to me at this time.

Again, a preliminary forecast out of an abundance of precaution. Guillermo has ever potential to hit La Paz, and hard, within two weeks. Keep an eye on the weather, and plan accordingly.