Enrique has performed a worst case and appears to be headed directly for La Paz. Except, it isn't an organized tropical system of any significant power. It appears to be causing storms to develop on the peninsula ahead of the center of circulation, or the circulation is heavily skewed from top to bottom. It's hard to tell with the resolution of imagery I am left with thanks to the gutting of America's academia of contributors.

I don't expect much. I've been through many tropical systems, including being through the eye of a system much stronger than this (Javier I believe). I expect gusty and variable winds from random directions, thunderstorms, and maybe a bit of a storm surge, but that's about it. Everything will be mild.


Update:

I am actually having trouble seeing where the center of circulation of the system is. The center of the clouds forming is south of La Paz and over land. The apparent lower level circulation appears to be over the sea south of San Jose del Cabo, and is what is causing the clouds to form and rain to fall on La Paz. But there is also evidence of circulation east of La Paz in the Sea of Cortez, which is where the NHC says the center of circulation is.

I am keeping an eye on the barometer, which isn't moving so far.

Comments are not available for this entry.