Enrique has just arrived to La Paz, as you can tell by looking out at the clear sky with the band of cumulus clouds stretching north and south over the hills east of town. That is the outer band of what used to be Enrique.

Enrique burned out overnight due to lack of energy to support it's tropical storm nature.

I have learned a great deal from this storm in order to better understand tracking of tropical systems which will vastly improve my ability to more accurately forecast these events. I have already proven I can better predict eastern pacific tropical weather better than the National Hurricane Center.

Enrique is of relatively low pressure due in part to a combination of circumstances surrounding atmospheric conditions related to global climate change; specifically the developing stalling of the jet stream which I expect to realize this summer. These effects are already profoundly affecting tropical weather which is vital because the NHC and NOAA and other forecasters use computer models which cannot consider these novel conditions. As such, the NHC is incapable of prediction of tropical weather with any degree of accuracy, especially as exemplified here by my far more accurate prediction than the NHC forecast, which can be seen here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2021/ENRIQUE_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_no_line

This pressure isn't low enough given the sea surface temperatures in order to suck up moisture from the ocean, which fuels tropical cyclones and turns them into storms. As of now, Enrique is no more than a played out bit of wind circulating in the Sea of Cortez making it difficult for the Baja Ferries to cross and not much else.

I was better able to predict both the path and intensity of the system despite having perhaps 1/10th of the data that the NHC forecasters have available to them. Why? Because I do not have computer models to mislead me from examining what's actually happening and how it will interact. While computers are better at predicting the movements and changes of air masses, the computers can't compensate for novel circumstances.

The fact is, computer models no longer work for predicting weather. Weather forecasting must then be done as it has always been done - without computers.


Enrique is presently in the opening of the Sea of Cortez, exactly where I said it would go as the worst possible circumstances. But the sea is too narrow, the land too dry, the upper level winds too strong, and the sea too cool for the pressure of the system to allow formation of even simple thunderstorms.

Enrique is done, will not affect La Paz except for some beautiful skies and a spectacular sunset.

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