Enrique Forecast 4 
Monday, June 28, 2021, 03:54 AM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator

Enrique is heading north along the 26 degree contour line. It has a narrow band of sufficient sea surface temperatures to draw from and isn't going to last long whatever happens. It is already interacting both with the cold waters to the west and land to the east. The band does widen and gives some leeway for at least maintaining the system, but its more likely than not that it will burn out before it can give La Paz any significant effects.

I expect, at most, 45knots of wind and about 36 hours of intermittent thunderstorms of varying intensity, and that's if the system goes along the center of the Sea of Cortez and comes over La Paz, the worst case scenario for this system. What is most likely is that the system will burn out within 12 hours so much that it cannot rebuild sufficiently to throw anything at La Paz except some wind and maybe some local thunderstorms of only moderate severity.

Don't be surprised to see the system either veer west or east and quickly fade if the system to the north can uncouple it from the tropical wave.

Enjoy Monday, get ready for some rain and wind, but don't be surprised if we stay dry.


Oh, and there's a link below to the NHC forecast, which I haven't read yet.
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Enrique Forecast 3 
Sunday, June 27, 2021, 10:00 PM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator
Enrique has slotted itself into the northward flow I was concerned about. There is still some question as to which direction it will go and the range couldn't be higher. There's really no way of knowing exactly what is going to happen, but my thought is that the storm is going to go ahead and start tracking up the Sea of Cortez. It will be interacting with land as it does, which will diminish its strength, and it will be over only 26-27 degree water, so not enough to continue to build, especially in light of upper level winds which will tend to sheer the top of the system westward.

If the storm tracks up the Sea of Cortez, La Paz will be hit, but only by thunderstorms and mild tropical winds as the land between the city and the Sea will sufficiently dampen the worst effects; but this is the scenario to produce the worst effects of the storm, so at worst La Paz is looking at sudden thunderstorms and up to 45knots of wind, mostly from the north and then west as the low pressure system moves by.

However; I believe that it is more likely the system will either head west in a few hours and be torn apart by sheering forces, or it will steer onto land and be torn apart that way. Either way, I believe it is more likely that we will not get any foul weather from this system whatsoever. The pressure here is too high, the sheering forces are too high, and the Sea Surface Temperatures are not high enough.

Enrique will likely miss but could produce stormy conditions as early as Tuesday.
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Enrique Forecast 2 
Sunday, June 27, 2021, 12:10 PM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator
I am having to examine details of systems that have influence on steering this system in order to ascertain what is going to happen. My only concern is whether or not the system could affect me. At this point, it does look as though the system is going to steer north, back towards the coast of Mexico.

I base this on the apparent degradation of a system that has upper level winds blowing west southwest where they would normally be blowing the opposite way this time of year. The system to the north northeast appears to be the only thing preventing the system from moving north.

If I had to guess, I would say the system is going to come closest to Guadalajara as it skims or comes along shore and that it and its effects will remain in the Sea of Cortez and along the mainland shore until around Mazatlan, more or less. This highly depends on the waning influence of the system to the northeast and the arm of the jetstream driving it. I no longer have access to my jetstream animations as the website operator died in a car accident last year and I have not yet replaced that resource and thus cannot better predict movements of air masses.

The influence of this system to the northeast is incredibly important. If any of this system's influence remains, it will drive any, or perhaps all, of Enrique's rain bands and influence towards or perhaps even on top of La Paz. This is highly unlikely of course, but a possibility that at this point remains.

I am of course monitoring the movements of these systems and will report back when I know significantly enough more to report. Air pressure is now being monitored also to determine how local weather will be affected by the system. It is presently 1013mmHg on my hydrometer.

For now, it is unlikely but still possible that Enrique will affect La Paz with at minimum heavy thunderstorms and tropical storm force winds.
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Enrique - Forecast 1 
Sunday, June 27, 2021, 05:43 AM - Tropical Weather
Posted by Administrator
Enrique has formed south southeast of Baja in the midst of limited SSTs which support its continued development. Enrique has now stalled as of this posting, and is poised to follow high SSTs either due west or north northeast along the coast.

The current NHC forecast appears to be a consensus of models which show these distinctly different paths. There is little to support movement of the system that way especially considering the SSTs and the fact that the system as stalled at the edge of the 26deg contour.

If the system does head north northwest along the Pacific coast as the NHC forecast suggests, the upper level winds will tear what's left of it apart. The SSTs are very low on this path.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep5+shtml/025018.shtml?cone#contents

The path will likely take the system due west. There is a great deal of wind sheer and little to support the system if it heads north. West, it can move with the upper level flows and retain some form to allow it to continue to transfer energy from warmer SSTs. Going north, the system would be shredded by strong upper level winds, winds which are actually the jetstream in what I believe are its final throes before it stalls in its oscillation.

SO, the storm won't go the way the NHC says it will go as of this posting and I believe it more likely to go west than north.
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