"Olaf" Update 
Tuesday, September 7, 2021, 03:52 PM - Tropical Weather
I have examined the air mass movements which appear to me would affect what will eventually be called Olaf's movement. SSTs are the primary driving factor for the development of a tropical system and thus a tropical system can only develop if it remains over warm enough waters, so it will tend to follow those waters. Upper level and lower level atmospheric affects will also affect steering.

In the case of Olaf, we again have two choices, westward or northward, two directions the SSTs are warm enough for continued development. The air masses appear to be moving in such a way as to steer Olaf slightly west of north at the moment, which also explains why the sytstem is still elongated along that axis as the system is still connected to the parent tropical wave.

Conditions appear to be conducive for continued and even rapid development of this system. A persistent high remains over southern Baja but that may not be enough to keep tropical cyclones from affecting La Paz directly or indirectly.

I am keeping an eye on the system because I believe it is not more likely than not that it could affect La Paz, and likely within a week.

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